Latinos may hold key for Democrats on Super Tuesday

BY LETTA TAYLER.letta.tayler@newsday.com

February 2, 2008

ALBUQUERQUE - Latino Ben García-Linke, a college freshman, came to hear Barack Obama speak here Friday night because he likes the candidate's opposition to the war, his plans for the environment and his sincerity. And then there's the cool factor.

"Bill Clinton was good for Latinos so I guess Hillary would be," said García-Linke, 19. "But Obama definitely seems a little more hip." And, he said, being black "definitely helps" Obama understand what it is like to a brown-skinned Latino.

More than a quarter of the nation's Latino voters could participate in Democratic contests this Super Tuesday, the largest percentage in primary history. For months, pundits assumed Hillary Rodham Clinton would capture most of those ballots. But Obama, bolstered by newly stuffed campaign coffers and the backing of key Kennedys - a sacred clan to many Latinos - is scrambling to catch up.

"It's clear Barack Obama has the capacity to appeal to Latinos," said Cecilia Muñoz, vice president of the National Council of La Raza. But with Super Tuesday five days away, she asked, "can he close the gap?"

Obama won three-fourths of the Latino vote in Illinois when he was elected senator. But he trails far behind Clinton among Hispanics in polls nationwide and in big delegate states such as California and New York. Hispanics gave Clinton her margin of victory in Nevada's caucuses.

In tight races, Hispanics could provide decisive margins in eight states Tuesday, including New York.

Clinton's advantages with the nation's fastest-growing voting group include her name recognition as the wife of Bill Clinton, whose presidency was marked by economic prosperity that benefited many Latinos. The array of Latinos campaigning on her behalf includes the mayor of Los Angeles, leaders of the United Farm Workers, and two New York City lawmakers, Jose Serrano and Nydia Velázquez, who will host a town meeting today in Manhattan.

But key members of the Kennedy clan could prove to be equally important surrogates for Obama. The late Bobby Kennedy was famous for organizing Latino laborers and Sen. Ted Kennedy has championed immigration reform. Both Ted Kennedy and Caroline Kennedy, daughter of President John F. Kennedy, are stumping for Obama this week. Ted Kennedy got royal treatment in an appearance on the syndicated radio show of Mexican talk-show phenomenon Piolin.

A tie-breaking endorsement could come from New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a Mexican-American who recently dropped out of the race.

Clinton and Obama are trying to outdo each other as advocates of immigration reform that would give most undocumented Hispanics a shot at remaining in this country legally.

"What we've got to do is say, 'Come out of the shadows,'" Clinton, who emphasizes her work years ago registering Latinos to vote along the Rio Grande, said during Thursday's debate with Obama.

Speaking to a crowd with many Latinos in South Los Angeles hours earlier, after Ricky Martin and Shakira music blared, Obama noted he, too was the son of an immigrant of color. "When my dad came here he didn't look like he stepped off the Mayflower," he quipped of his Kenyan father.

Earlier Friday in Albuquerque, where 37 percent of voters are Hispanic, Obama drew cheers when he discounted "the notion that we are going to ship them [immigrants] back."

"It would cost us billions of dollars," he said, borrowing a key line from Clinton, who says mass deportation would be costly, impractical and immoral. "We would have to use all of our police forces just to spend time going to meatpacking plants or factories or Mitt Romney's lawn." GOP hopeful Romney was embarrassed last year by the media's discovery that his landscaping contractor hired undocumented gardeners.

Obama casts himself as a racial harmonizer. "We've heard some cynical talk about how white folks and black folks and Latino folks cannot come together," he said, adding that his work organizing Hispanics and blacks in Chicago disproves that.

But for many Latinos, the choice between Obama and Clinton is the same as for other Americans, such as experience vs. change, or the opportunity to break the glass ceiling. "He makes good points, but Hillary is a strong person with a proven record," said Cristina Skerry, a Cuban-American nursing student. "And she's a woman."

Hispanic voters

Eight state with significant numbers of Hispanic voters will hold caucuses or primaries Tuesday.

State Percentage of eligible voters who are Hispanic

New Mexico 37%

California 23%

Arizona 17%

Colorado 12%

New York 11%

New Jersey 10%

Illinois 8%

Massachusetts 5%

LONG ISLAND 9%

SOURCE: PEW HISPANIC CENTER