Rudy's camp discussing exit if he fails in Florida

Dan Janison | dan.janison@newsday.com

January 29, 2008

This could be "Goodbye Rudy" Tuesday.

Away from the cameras, and away from the sunshine, and away from the rallies and all the displays of optimism, there is talk inside the Giuliani-for-president camp of an exit strategy.

Among his allies, employees and volunteers - both past and present - opinion varies about when the onetime Republican front-runner might call it quits.

But on the eve of the make-or-break Florida primary, some backers found it pointless to deny in private that this is a topic of internal discussion.

One member of the old circle acknowledged the possibility that Giuliani would withdraw within days - if an embarrassing loss in his home state next Tuesday seemed likely.

Such a grim scenario could develop if Giuliani lands fourth today in Florida behind Sen. John McCain, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee - or even if he comes in a distant third.

A quick pullout would end the dream of New York's GOP organization to see a favorite son on the November ballot who could help its local candidates.

Another old Giulianista, who like the first declined to be identified, said the former mayor genuinely likes McCain - and so might not wish to draw votes from him in the Super Tuesday states.

Down the final stretch, polls showed the Florida race to be a contest between McCain and Romney for first and second place.

This was the state Giuliani considered a strategic "firewall" and spent millions of dollars, and to which he pointed while failing to make a dent in Iowa or New Hampshire.

Still, amid his erosion of support and funding, some loyal partisans argued yesterday against surrender.

A Floridian who met up with Giuliani's traveling caravan yesterday hoped that ballots filed when he led in the polls will bolster the candidate into a respectable second place, providing a rationale to go on.

"I think he stays in for Super Tuesday," said this veteran politico. "If he comes in second in Florida he can make a 'comeback kid' speech. He can stand up and say he's still in. If he comes in third, it would be tough, but I think he'd go through with it mechanically and try to win."

"If you're in fourth you get out," the source said. "Anyway, I think Huckabee is the X factor. He'll suck up conservative votes - which hurts Romney more than Rudy. The Rudy vote is more secure."

A longtime Republican activist in New York City expressed little doubt that Giuliani would stick it out through Super Tuesday.

"There's no rational reason to believe he'd do all that well in Florida," this person said. "Florida Democrats don't vote in this and Florida Republicans are not ex-New Yorkers. It may have been the only strategy available to him. He was not going to do well in Iowa no matter what. He did put a lot of effort into New Hampshire but failed to gain traction.

"He and McCain like each other. When Giuliani was up, McCain was down. Giuliani faded as soon as McCain was brought back as a factor. Giuliani should go through February 5th, regardless."

Noting that it took weeks for the mayor to decide to withdraw from the 2000 Senate race - even after his prostate cancer diagnosis - a former aide expressed doubt that Giuliani would rapidly disengage from this race.

"Then again, we're talking about Rudy," said the ex-aide, with a tone of what seemed like nostalgic affection. "Who knows what he's going to do?"