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Despite some wins, state GOPers clouded in gloom

Dan Janison | dan.janison@newsday.com

November 6, 2008

Both Sen. Dean Skelos and Assemb. Robert Barra - their names proudly displayed in big orange type in the storefront window of their home Rockville Centre Republican Club - had coasted to re-election Tuesday.

But the place had the feel of a funeral, right down to the way people smoked and looked at their shoes, and told old stories and hugged goodbyes on the Sunrise Highway sidewalk, once the evening's results were known.

Not only had Democrats won the White House, and tightened their grip on the Congress, but the party snared a new 32-30 majority in the State Senate - barely 4 1/2 months after Skelos became its GOP majority leader.

Sens. Caesar Trunzo and Serphin Maltese, neighbors of the adjacent counties, had lost, and the power had shifted.

"We'll be back," Skelos vowed in a gentle, weary voice on the quiet sidewalk after emerging with top aides from a back room and departing the club around 11:20 p.m.

He explained that circumstances would change in the next election in two years, when Barack Obama would not be carrying the state.

He was asked if he'd be at the Republican helm after New Year's.

"That's a decision of the conference," Skelos said, though the answer is likely to be yes.

How this GOP comeback might work is a more challenging question.

Sure, there was GOP-fed buzz yesterday about the "Gang of Four," a group of New York City Democrats making noises as if they might help reinstall Skelos at the top in January. Sens. Carl Kruger, Ruben Diaz, Pedro Espada and Hiram Monserrate declared themselves "an independent caucus" that wishes to "move away from partisan politics."

A group like that could sabotage the ambitions of a razor-thin majority. Remember the Nassau Legislature in 2006 - when a rebellion among the Democrats jammed up all business for weeks.

But all four are likely to continue operating in a Democratic world.

Kruger, from Brooklyn, has had himself mentioned for borough president. Diaz has said some palpably loopy things - but also has a son in politics who may wish to run for Bronx borough president. Espada and Monserrate will have motives of their own to avoid severing party ties.

Some remember Sen. Olga Mendez of East Harlem. She switched from Democrat to Republican - and was ousted at the polls.

That said, the presumed new majority leader, Minority Leader Malcolm Smith (D- St. Albans), with a past that has included business and personal controversies, has been the subject of rebellion rumors for months.

Yesterday, Sen. Jeff Klein (D-Bronx), widely believed to be his rival, introduced a resolution in the Democratic conference backing Smith for majority leader. The gesture seemed convincing enough; Klein would expose himself as duplicitous if he makes a move on Smith anytime soon.

Attrition further threatens a Republican return. If Owen Johnson of Suffolk, or Frank Padavan of Queens, or Hugh Farley of Schenectady chooses to retire, Democrats stand good chances of winning their seats. Also, recruiting good young candidates becomes tougher without majority resources.

The shift is clear elsewhere in Nassau. Veteran Sen. Kemp Hannon (R- Garden City) prevailed. But so did rookie Craig Johnson (D-Port Washington). Now Hannon stands to lose his chairmanship of the Senate health committee; Johnson's clout increases.

Skelos summed it up simply the other night: "We have to regroup."