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Mixed message on Iraq pullout

After first announcing his top general has plans to start bringing U.S. troops home this fall, Bush says it wasn't a formal recommendation

BY CRAIG GORDON | Newsday Washington Bureau

June 27, 2006

WASHINGTON - The White House confirmed yesterday that its top general in Iraq has drafted a plan to start bringing U.S. troops home this fall, then quickly tried to downplay the news.

Gen. George Casey has drawn up plans to bring home about 7,000 troops starting in September and more than half the U.S. combat strength in Iraq by the end of 2007, White House aides said.

That would total roughly 28,000 out of the 127,000 Americans in Iraq now, administration officials said, though the exact troop level envisioned by Casey's plan was unclear, because it also would include an unspecified number of support troops.

The plan would seem like good news for a war-battered president who has long given a stock answer to the question of when U.S. troops can start coming home: It's up to Casey.

But instead of embracing the idea publicly, Bush insisted it wasn't a formal recommendation at all. Spokesman Tony Snow said it was merely one of several scenarios Casey is considering. "Maybe they will, maybe they won't" come home, Snow told reporters.

For Bush, chalk it up to the expectations game. Administration officials believe Casey has a good chance of meeting the 2006 goal, involving not even 10 percent of the U.S. troops there now. But they also believe one of the worst things Bush could do is raise expectations of an autumn pullout, only to abandon it in the face of rising violence.

Bush insisted that any recommendation from Casey would be based on conditions on the ground, as well as input from the new Iraqi government. "Whatever recommendation he makes, it will be aimed toward achieving victory," Bush said.

Democrats cried foul, saying Casey's September time-frame would put a troop drawdown announcement just weeks ahead of a critical congressional election in which Republicans are fearful of being punished for the war in Iraq. "We don't need a September or October surprise, with the president and Republicans proclaiming victory and announcing troop redeployments just in time for the midterm elections," said Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid of Nevada.

Democrats also said Casey's plan sounds identical to a Democratic-sponsored Senate bill for a "phased redeployment" starting this year that was defeated last week in the Senate. Republicans at the time blasted the Democratic approach as a "cut and run" strategy.

Under Casey's plan, troop reduction would come from bringing home two combat brigades at the end of their rotation, roughly 3,500 troops each, and not sending in their replacements. Then he would aim to cut another 21,000 or so troops in combat brigade by the end of 2007, administration officials said.

But it's not clear exactly how many troops would be left in Iraq at the end of 2007. All of those combat troops are backed up by logistics, intelligence, training and other units, but Pentagon officials have warned some of those units would stay behind to assist the new Iraqi security forces.