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Growing threat of Iraq civil war

U.S. generals voice concern over religious violence and warn of possible increase in American casualties Growing threat of Iraq civil war

BY GLENN THRUSH | Newsday Washington Bureau

August 4, 2006

WASHINGTON - A top U.S. commander is warning that the threat of sectarian civil war in Iraq is "as bad as I've seen it" and predicts that quelling religious conflict in Baghdad could increase U.S. casualties.

The sober assessment by Gen. John Abizaid, commander of United States forces in the Middle East, comes days after President George W. Bush agreed to deploy 3,500 troops from Mosul to Baghdad, scuttling plans to draw down some U.S. forces by the midterm elections.

"I believe that the sectarian violence is probably as bad as I've seen it, in Baghdad in particular, and that if not stopped, it is possible that Iraq could move towards civil war," Abizaid told the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday.

"We do have the possibility of that devolving into civil war," added Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who expressed confidence that war could be averted if Iraqi security forces improve.

The generals' statements mark a departure from the more upbeat Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, who has been reluctant to acknowledge the possibility of Sunni-Shiite civil war despite a year of unabated sectarian violence.

White House Press Secretary Tony Snow, speaking on Air Force One as Bush flew to Texas, told reporters, "I don't think the president is going to quibble with his generals on their characterizations."

The comments by Abizaid and Pace echoed the sentiments of William Patey, the outgoing British ambassador to Iraq. "The prospect of a low-intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy," Patey wrote in a memo obtained by the BBC this week.

Abizaid said the sectarian fighting has sidetracked plans to begin pulling troops from Iraq. "I think it's possible that in the period ahead of us in Baghdad that we'll take increased casualties," he added.

During the testimony, the bloodshed continued in Iraq. Two Marines were killed in separate incidents during fighting in western Anbar province yesterday, and U.S. troops killed two militants during a battle at a Baghdad checkpoint, the U.S. military reported.

At the hearing, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), a longtime defender of the war, questioned whether the Pentagon was adequately prepared for a civil war.

"Did you anticipate this situation a year ago?" McCain asked Pace.

"No, sir," the general replied.

Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) was incensed by a recent report that two-thirds of Army National Guard brigades aren't combat-ready because they don't have enough operating vehicles. "This is a stunning indictment of your leadership," he said.

Later, Armed Service Committee Chairman John Warner (R-Va.) asked Abizaid to comment on the Middle East conflict - and what role a multinational peacekeeping force should have on the Israel-Lebanon border.

Such a force should have the freedom to use "all available means" and "have capabilities that are just not minor, small arms, but would include all arms," he added.