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More work to do in Iraq, Bush says

Despite recent good news, president acknowledges job's not done and won't set withdrawal dates

BY CRAIG GORDON | Newsday Washington Bureau

June 15, 2006

WASHINGTON - For President George W. Bush, now comes the hard part in Iraq.

As the hoopla fades over the president's lightning trip to Baghdad on Tuesday and the death of a top terrorist last week, Bush is still under fierce political pressure to show gains there - both in stabilizing the divided and dangerous land and in winning back Americans soured on the war.

Even Bush himself signaled yesterday how tough that's going to be, mixing hopeful talk of steady progress with a blunt dismissal of setting troop withdrawal deadlines to calm a restless U.S. public.

"Don't bet on American politics forcing my hand, because it's not going to happen," he told reporters at a Rose Garden news conference.

Bush also unveiled steps to help the Iraqi government find its footing, including sending a number of his cabinet secretaries to offer advice. But some Iraq analysts questioned whether those steps alone - particularly without new financial aid or a shift in overall U.S. strategy - will make a marked difference.

"The obstacles they face are towering ... it's unrealistic for us to expect them suddenly to get their act together," said Steven Simon, a former Clinton national security staffer at the Council on Foreign Relations. "We won't have the resolve and domestic political support to sustain the kind of engagement that arguably might make a bigger difference."

Larry Diamond, who advised the U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq in 2004, also said he believes Bush doesn't have a fundamental strategy for dealing with prickly political issues like divvying up oil resources that are plaguing the new government.

"I'm not optimistic," he said. "Unless you get a political compromise on how power and resources are going to be shared in the new constitutional order, I think it's going to be very hard to stabilize this country."

Despite a week or so of good news, the fundamental challenges facing Iraq's new government haven't changed much - sectarian violence, unchecked rise of militias, shortages in services like electricity, an oil industry beset by corruption and sabotage and a tattered economy.

Bush confessed that he initially was uncertain about the new leadership team, but said his trip to Iraq to size them up convinced him they are capable of leading Iraq forward, particularly with a security crackdown now under way in Baghdad. But he refused to offer any specific target for measuring when it might be possible for U.S. forces to start leaving.

Bush stressed repeatedly the cost of leaving too soon, saying, "It's bad policy. I know it may sound good politically. It will endanger our country to pull out ... before we accomplish the mission." That line of argument - oft-repeated even as Bush's political fortunes fell - is one White House aides believe is a winner for Republicans this fall, and the key to regaining political momentum on Iraq.

Republicans believe they can use upcoming debates in Congress over Democratic calls to set a timetable for withdrawal to paint the opposing party as weak on defense.

Republicans facing congressional elections this fall are worried the president might drag them down. Bush has gotten a small bump out of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's death in recent days, with his approval rating ticking up in a Gallup poll this week to 38 percent, from an all-time low in May of 31 percent.

Previous boosts, such as after the capture of Saddam Hussein, have proven short-lived for Bush. And independent political analyst Charles Cook disputed Republican notions of making big gains on Iraq, with so many voters strongly opposed to the war.

"They're pushing and pulling every button and every lever to try to see what they can get to work," Cook said, "because nothing's working so far."