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U.S.-Iraq group would mull troop reduction

BY TIMOTHY M. PHELPS | WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF

July 12, 2006

WASHINGTON - The United States and Iraq are about to form a joint commission on withdrawal of U.S. troops, Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad said yesterday. But he warned that leaving Iraq too abruptly could unleash a "regional conflagration" and create a new base for al-Qaida.

Khalilzad, on a visit to Washington, also fired a particularly strong volley at Iran, saying it provided extremist groups in Iraq with arms, training and money and, if it persists, Iraq and the United States will consider "necessary measures to deny Tehran the ability to undertake destabilizing policies."

The Afghan-born ambassador, who gets high marks here for his work in Iraq, gave a generally optimistic view of the situation there but conceded that the threat to Iraqi security had changed in the past year. "A year ago, terrorism and the insurgency against the coalition and the Iraqi security forces were the principal source of instability," Khalilzad said at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Particularly since the bombing of the Golden Mosque in February, violent sectarianism is now the main challenge. This sectarianism is the source of frequent tragedies on the streets of Baghdad."

He said Iraqi security forces now number more than 265,000, including disparate groups like police and building guards. By the end of the summer, three-quarters of Iraqi army battalions and brigades will be good enough to take the lead in joint operations with U.S. troops, he said.

When he gets back to Iraq, Khalilzad said, he will sit down with Gen. George Casey, the U.S. commander, and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to establish the joint commission of Iraqis and U.S. forces to assess the security situation and recommend troop reductions, if conditions warrant.

"If current progress remains on track, the coalition will be able to continue its drawdown of forces," he said.

But clearly reacting to increasing domestic pressure for a quick withdrawal, Khalilzad warned against moving too quickly.

"A precipitous coalition departure could unleash a sectarian civil war, which inevitably would draw neighboring states into a regional conflagration that would disrupt oil supplies and cause instability to spill over borders," he said. "It could also result in al-Qaida taking over part of Iraq, re-creating the sanctuary it enjoyed - but lost - in Afghanistan."

While Khalilzad has warned Iran before to stop meddling in Iraq, he increased the pressure yesterday by warning of unspecified "necessary measures."

"Iraqi government is increasingly concerned about Iran's destabilizing action. Iran must decide whether it's irreconcilably opposed to a stable, strong and democratic Iraq." he said. "If Iran persists in its unhelpful actions, the Iraqi government, as well as the United States and other friends of Iraq, will need to consider necessary measures to deny Tehran the ability to undertake destabilizing policies."