A white Christmas on Long Island? Dream on.
Weather models Thursday show "the pattern is not indicative of snow," said Joey Picca, National Weather Service meteorologist based in Upton.
Indeed, the weather service's seven-day forecast indicated Christmas would be "cool and dry" with temperatures in the mid- to upper 30s -- and mid 30s the day before. That would come off a warm streak, with Sunday's temperatures on most of Long Island expected to hit the low 60s, Picca said.
Historical data looking at the whiteness of Christmases past also indicated low chances, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Apart from this year's actual forecast, there was just a 13 percent historic probability of an inch or more of snow on the ground at Long Island MacArthur Airport in Ronkonkoma and a 14 percent chance in Mineola, said Jessica Spaccio, a climatologist with the Northeast Regional Climate Center based at Cornell University. That's according to weather data dating to 1984 for the airport and 1963 for Mineola.
If you really have your heart set on that wintry postcard scene, Spaccio would point you to Pinkham Notch, N.H., where there's a 93 percent historic probability of snow on the ground; Caribou, Maine, at 90 percent; and, outside the Northeast, Fairbanks, Alaska, with a 100 percent probability.
Looking to avoid a winter wonderland? Your best bets are Augusta, Ga., Las Vegas or Columbia, S.C., where she said there's a zero percent probability of snow.