Abdo: Iranians support their nuclear program
The central message that emerged from this event was articulated by Iran's Deputy Secretary of the National Security Council, who said that the "dual strategy based on pressure and diplomacy the West insists on is failed and illogical."
It is time for the United States and its Western allies to realize, as the official, Ali Bagheri, stated, that the policy of more sanctions, intimidation and pressure is counter-productive to the stated goal of changing the regime's behavior on the nuclear issue. Not only is the Iranian government becoming more belligerent, but according to polling data collected in recent weeks, the Iranian public overwhelming supports many of the government's positions on the nuclear program and related issues.
According to recent data collected by Ebrahim Mohseni, who is conducting research inside Iran as part of his dissertation at the University of Maryland, 85 percent of Iranians said it was very important for Iran to have a civilian nuclear program.
This high statistic suggests that, despite the pressure on Iran over its nuclear program, there is no hesitation with the public that it should continue. Mohseni's finding is consistent with a poll conducted by the Rand Corporation in 2009, which found that 87 percent of those surveyed said it was important to have a nuclear program.
On issues regarding the economy and sanctions, 65 percent blamed the worsening economy on sanctions, and only 11 percent said the state of the economy was due to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's incompetence. Nineteen percent said it was due to the obstructionist techniques of Ahmadinejad's opponents. When asked if Iran continues to enrich uranium, how likely is it that the current sanctions will be increased, 42 percent said sanctions would definitely increase. This finding is consistent with the same question asked in 2009 by the World Public Opinion poll, which found that 35 percent of Iranians definitely believed sanctions would increase - and they have.
In a very telling question, respondents were asked: "Would you favor or oppose an agreement whereby all current sanctions against Iran would be removed and Iran would continue its nuclear energy program, except that it would agree not to enrich uranium?" Fifty-nine percent were opposed to stopping enrichment and only 29 percent were in favor.
When asked the question: "How important do you think it is for Iran to develop an atomic bomb?" Thirty-eight percent said it was important and 33 percent said not very important. Mohensi, an independent researcher, revealed the findings on October 17 at a conference at the Stimson Center, a non-partisan Washington think tank. His poll was conducted between Sept. 29 and Oct. 11 calling the respondents by phone in rural and urban areas of Iran. The sample size was 1,110 respondents and the margin of error was 3 percent.
When asked, "Which courses of action do you prefer?" Forty-one percent said to have both an atomic bomb and nuclear power and 56 percent said only nuclear power.
In another question, respondents were asked which statement is closer to their opinion: 1) "Iran should continue its nuclear enrichment activity even if it results in war;" or 2) "Iran should prevent a war from occurring even if it means suspending nuclear enrichment." Fifty-five percent chose to continue enrichment, while 33 percent said Iran should prevent a war, even if it means suspending enrichment.
If this data accurately reflects public opinion, a few lessons should be drawn: First and foremost, the theory that, when pressured hard enough from the effects of sanctions, Iranians will rise up against the regime, seems implausible. Two, the more Iranians suffer, the more they blame those imposing the sanctions, not their own government. According to Mohseni's poll, 76 percent had a very unfavorable view of the United States.
The only way out is through bilateral talks, which recently Tthe New York Times reported had been agreed to, but both governments denied the reports. The United States and Iran should also negotiate to find other issues upon which to develop mutual cooperation with the hope that once trust is established, the nuclear issue can return to the negotiating table.
Geneive Abdo is a fellow at the Stimson Center.