May: In the West Bank, peace and prosperity are unlikely
It's difficult not to like Salam Fayyad. The prime minister of the Palestinian Authority has an avuncular demeanor and a professorial charm. He boasts a doctorate in economics from the University of Texas at Austin and remains loyal to the Longhorns. In a spacious conference room in the palatial government complex where he maintains his offices, he answers questions on a wide range of issues from me and other members of a delegation of American national security professionals.
One need not agree with everything Fayyad says to appreciate that he is the kind of Palestinian leader with whom Israeli leaders could make peace -- if Israeli leaders could negotiate with him, and if he could deliver a majority of Palestinians willing to accept a compromise solution to the conflict. Fundamentally, here's what that would mean: Palestinians would unambiguously recognize Israel's right to exist within secure borders. In exchange, Israel would do everything possible to facilitate the development of a free and viable Palestinian state.
What are the chances that Fayyad can achieve that? Roughly zero to none.
Fayyad has few supporters in the West Bank -- and even fewer in Hamas-controlled Gaza. He was not elected prime minister, he was appointed in 2007 by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who claimed the power to do so on the basis of "national emergency." As for Abbas, he was elected to his position in January 2005. His four-year term ended in 2009. New elections have been postponed indefinitely. Similarly, the Palestinian Legislative Council, which sits in Gaza, was elected to a four-year term in January 2006. The following year, Hamas staged a bloody coup against the P.A. in Gaza. New legislative elections also remain unscheduled.
American and European diplomats value Fayyad's skills and trust his integrity. So long as he is prime minister, they feel better about giving massive amounts of aid to the P.A. Israelis respect Fayyad, too. You do understand that all this makes him less popular -- not more -- with the broad Palestinian public? Of course, popularity is not the only source -- or even the primary source -- of power in the Palestinian territories. But Fayyad does not command a militia. And, because he is seen as a moderate, he receives no financial backing from such oil-rich Muslim countries as Iran and Qatar.
Hamas leaders -- who do receive support from both Iran and Qatar -- openly detest Fayyad. Finally, though Fayyad was appointed by Abbas, he is not close to Abbas, who, in addition to heading the Palestinian Authority, leads the Fatah faction of the Palestine Liberation Organization. That faction holds the reins, more or less, on the West Bank.
Ramallah, the de facto capital of the West Bank, lies six miles north of Jerusalem in the Judean Mountains. By the standards of non-oil producing Middle Eastern countries, it is neither depressed nor depressing. Buildings are of white Jerusalem stone with red tile roofs. There are mosques with tall minarets and green domes, palm trees and stone walls, modern hotels and good restaurants that serve cold, locally brewed beer. A fair amount of new construction is under way, but there also are empty lots, strewn with rubble. In some of them, goats graze.
Ramallah may not be the ideal Palestinian city of the future but, as it happens, an attempt to build that metropolis is under way on hilltops less than six miles to the northwest. It's called Rawabi and it's a planned city that will cost $1 billion, most of which is coming from Qatar. The first residents are to begin moving in within a year. In five to seven years, it is to have homes for 10,000 families, as well as a commercial center, a cultural center, medical facilities, stores and cafes, and a giant amphitheater.
Bashar Masri, the elegant and eloquent entrepreneur behind this project, acknowledges that to succeed, Rawabi will need businesses and jobs -- high-tech would be his preference. That will require foreign investors confident that their money will not end up in the foreign bank accounts of corrupt officials. It would help, too, if Rawabi and all of what Masri calls Palestine were to enjoy not just peaceful but cooperative relations with the little start-up nation to its west.
Both Masri and Fayyad favor that outcome -- of that I have little doubt. But with Palestinian power divided between a jihadist Hamas and a vacillating Fatah, and with Islamists committed to Israel's extermination ascendant throughout much of the Middle East, I have no idea how they get there from here.
Clifford D. May is president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a policy institute focusing on national security.