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Onus on McCain to catch Obama in presidential race

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

October 5, 2008

WASHINGTON - One month before Election Day, Barack Obama sits atop battleground polls in a shrinking playing field, the economic crisis is breaking his way, and the Democrat has made progress toward winning the White House.

The onus is on Republican John McCain to turn the race around under exceptionally challenging circumstances - and his options are limited.

McCain's advisers say the Arizona senator will ramp up his attacks in the coming days with a tougher, more focused message describing "who Obama is," including questioning his character, "liberal" record and "too risky" proposals in advertising and appearances.

Obama's advisers, in turn, say he will argue McCain is unable to articulate an economic vision that's different from President George W. Bush's. In a new push, the Illinois senator is calling McCain's health care plan "radical." Now that the vice-presidential debate between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin is over, the contest returns to being entirely about Obama and McCain and probably will stay that way until Nov. 4. The rivals meet Tuesday in their second of three debates as the campaign enters its next unpredictable chapter.

Interviews with party insiders across the country show Democrats are optimistic of victory if nervous over whether Obama can hold his advantage, while Republicans are worried the race may be moving out of reach though hopeful that McCain will beat the odds as he did in the GOP primaries.

Both sides note plenty can change in one month.

Gauging the Electoral Map

The Electoral College battle playing out over roughly a dozen states puts McCain's challenge to reach the necessary 270 votes in stark terms.

He can't prevail without holding on to most of the states Bush won, and he's now virtually tied or trailing in public polls in at least 10 of them - Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia - as he tries to fend off Obama's well-funded efforts.

The GOP nominee also is only playing in five states Democrat John Kerry won in 2004 - Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and, now, Maine - and he's running behind.

McCain abandoned efforts Thursday in costly 17-vote Michigan, as Obama approaches a double-digit lead in the high-unemployment state. Some Republicans close to McCain's campaign fret in private that Obama may be pulling away for good; others aren't so pessimistic.

But there's unanimity in this; McCain has dwindling chances to regain momentum in the face of stiff headwinds, and the upcoming debates are critical.

"He needs to be able to speak to his strengths and remind people of why they like him," said Tom Rath, a New Hampshire delegate to the Republican National Convention. Florida GOP chairman Jim Greer said McCain must clearly "distinguish between the two approaches to governing." And Ted Welch, a veteran Republican fundraiser in Tennessee, said: "He has to give voters enough reasons to vote for him. He hasn't yet."

GOP operatives say the goal is to undercut Obama, probably by raising questions about his associations with convict Antoin "Tony" Rezko, a former Obama top fundraiser, and Bill Ayers, a founder of a 1960s radical group.

"We're looking at a very aggressive last 30 days of turning the page on this financial crisis and getting back to discussing Mr. Obama's aggressively liberal record and how he will be too risky for Americans," adviser Greg Strimple said Thursday.

McCain himself suggested a strategy shift at a Colorado event that day when a voter asked, "When are you going to take the gloves off?" He answered, "How about Tuesday night?"

Clearly, McCain's campaign sees focusing on his biography and record isn't enough and making Obama unacceptable in voters' eyes may be the Republican's best - if not only - shot at winning. The risk: Voters could be turned off if McCain goes too far.

McCain's staff has been discouraged by the environment of the past two weeks in which the dynamics were largely out of their control - discouraged but no less determined.

Approval of the bailout plan, advisers hope, will help fade images of McCain struggling to strike the right chord amid the crisis. But there's no indication another issue will eclipse the economy, and more economic woes are possible; the nation lost 159,000 jobs last month and Americans will soon open their third-quarter 401(k) statements.

The fundraising factor