Text size:

With party OK, will voters pick Obama in November?

BY NIA-MALIKA HENDERSON | nia.henderson@newsday.com; Staff writer Crai

May 8, 2008

DURHAM, N.C. - Even though it looks increasingly certain Barack Obama will be his party's nominee, his campaign still struggles with one nagging question that Tuesday's big win here did not erase: Can he beat John McCain in the fall with the voters who are powering his primary wins?

Obama, who begins campaigning in Oregon today, says he can, by putting together a coalition that looks different from the usual Democratic base.

For one, new voters will bolster his solid coalition of blacks, young people, and the college-educated - enough, he argues, to offset any weaknesses among blue-collar whites, his campaign says. And ultimately, core Democrats will join the fold come November, given the choice between a third Republican term and Obama.

Political analysts are skeptical. Once the race expands beyond the confines of the Democratic Party to a wide-open contest with independents and Republicans, "that's a real challenge for Barack Obama," said David Paleologos, a pollster at Suffolk University in Boston.

He cited polls showing roughly a third of Clinton supporters saying they would pull the lever for John McCain if Obama is the party's nominee.

In the two weeks between his defeat in Pennsylvania and the Indiana and North Carolina races, Obama shifted his strategy to address his white blue-collar gap. While he dismissed knocks on his patriotism, accusations of elitism, and focus on the comments of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr. as "manufactured issues," he systematically tackled each charge. His speeches got more patriotic. "God Bless America" became a more frequent closing.

And though he mocked Clinton for downing a shot of whiskey with the locals, he did the same - drinking a Pabst Blue Ribbon in Raleigh, along with his wife, Michelle.

According to primary voters, Obama's firm denouncement of Wright was enough. Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill put it this way yesterday: "Barack Obama squared off against the electability argument and he won," she said. "He took body blows and he survived."

Still, the trend lines, starting with Virginia, don't show him gaining much ground with Clinton's base - white women, seniors and blue-collar workers - and in fact, show his appeal narrowing in some places. Obama won 52 percent of the white vote in Virginia in February - a big reason he says he can put the normally Republican state in play.

But in North Carolina Tuesday night, Obama won just 37 percent of white Democratic voters to Clinton's 62 percent. Come November, he would need roughly 40 percent of all white voters in the state to prevail over McCain, a major challenge.

Team Clinton argues her coalition is better suited to beat McCain in the fall - not the grouping of "eggheads and African-Americans" Obama has, in the words of one Democratic strategist.

Most analysts agree - with one caveat. Anti-Bush, anti-Republican sentiment is so high it might drive some voters toward Obama who in another year might have qualms about supporting him.

Despite the different coalitions now, ultimately, the winning formula for either Democrat would be essentially the same, some say. "He doesn't need to win the white blue-collar vote outright. He needs to keep it relatively close, and I think he will do that," said Thomas F. Schaller, author of "Whistling Past Dixie: How Democrats Can Win Without the South," adding Obama could win with about 45 percent of that vote.

"His path might be different in the combination of states than Hillary's, but it would be about 90 percent the same and the coalitions would be demographically the same," Schaller said.