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Clinton's presidential bid faces math challenges

BY GLENN THRUSH | glenn.thrush@newsday.com

April 22, 2008

SCRANTON, Pa. - Hillary Rodham Clinton vowed to take her cash-starved campaign far beyond today's Pennsylvania primary - win or lose - saying she'll fight until voters in Florida and Michigan are seated at the Democratic convention.

Barack Obama's advisers have argued it will be almost impossible for Clinton to win the nomination if she doesn't prevail in remaining contests by landslide margins - and some analysts have suggested she should quit if she doesn't win Pennsylvania by 20 points or more. The state has 187 delegates up for grabs.

But Clinton was defiant last night, telling CNN's Larry King, "I'm going until we get Florida and Michigan resolved."

Clinton won both states and has fought to have their votes counted after the Democratic National Committee stripped away their delegates for scheduling primaries before Feb. 5. It wasn't immediately clear if the former first lady was willing to bring her fight to the convention floor in August - or if she'll accept DNC Chairman Howard Dean's demand that the contest be decided by June.

With Pennsylvania looming, Clinton and her supporters have waged a war against Obama - and political arithmetic, defiant in the face of depressing deficits in delegates, popular votes, national polls and a devastating new report showing her campaign $1 million in the red.

Despite the numbers, "I want her to stay in it until the end," said Sean Mack, 50, a Realtor who trekked from upstate Cortland to volunteer for Clinton in this blue-collar town where Clinton's father, Hugh Rodham, grew up. "People want to count her out, but she's not going to listen to them. The race is still close and anything - anything - can happen."

A hoarse but energized Clinton brought the same message on a tour of the state yesterday, urging supporters in Scranton, Pittsburgh, Harrisburg and Philadelphia to stick by her at rallies that ended with rock band Journey's "Don't Stop Believing."

At the same time, however, her campaign was on the defensive after the release of a March monthly campaign report showing Clinton with only $9.3 million in cash on hand and $10.3 million in debts.

Obama - who has outspent Clinton $9 million to $4 million in TV advertising here - reported $42 million in the bank with minimal debts.

Even factoring in a 3- to 8-point victory today in Pennsylvania predicted in recent polls, Clinton isn't likely to seriously cut into Obama's lead in the two counts that matter most - his 1,450-to-1,251 lead among a target of 2,025 delegates, or his 800,000-vote margin in the popular vote nationally.

And that could render her victory here practically moot, prompt an avalanche of defecting superdelegates, dry up fundraising sources - and turn up the pressure on her to quit.

But Clinton's defenders came out swinging against analysts who say she'll need a 20-point win in Pennsylvania coupled with a string of unlikely landslides in Indiana, West Virginia and North Carolina to catch Obama. "Those numbers are ridiculous," said Clinton strategist Geoff Garin, who wanted to focus on Obama's record-breaking spending in the state, which may top $20 million.

Clinton's calculations hinge on convincing 300-odd uncommitted superdelegates that she's the only one capable of winning big states like Pennsylvania, California, Texas, Ohio and Florida - while raising doubts that Obama can beat presumptive GOP nominee John McCain.

Obama, buoyed by his big spending, has cut deeply into a Clinton lead in Pennsylvania that was consistently in double-digits six weeks ago. But he's failed to break into the lead despite flooding urban markets with TV ads and rural parts of the state with 30-second radio spots. A Quinnipiac University poll released yesterday showed Clinton leading Obama 51 to 44 percent, with a 3-point margin of error.

Clinton's campaign dismissed a Drudge Report story claiming that an internal Clinton poll showed her with an 11-point lead on the eve of the primary - with Garin suggesting the campaign didn't have enough cash to conduct such a last-minute poll. "It's wrong; there's no such data in the campaign," said Garin. "This is part of our era of frugality. ... I arrived at a moment of frugality."

Later, Clinton aides said Garin was joking and that the campaign last polled voters here late last week. But they confirmed she hasn't paid for any new polling leading up to today's balloting - as the campaign was able to do earlier in the primary season.

Political arithmetic

DELEGATES:

Obama: 1,450

Clinton: 1,251