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Presidential candidates near end of grueling campaign

BY TOM BRUNE | tom.brune@newsday.com

11:57 PM EDT, October 27, 2008

WASHINGTON - During the next six days leading up to Nov. 4 Election Day, Barack Obama will try to seal his lead in the polls by returning to form and giving big speeches to big crowds, while his underdog rival, John McCain, appears prepared to stay on the attack to get back into the race.

After two years of running for the White House, Obama and McCain will end their campaigns on the Republicans' home turf, engaged in a tug-of-war over the states that President George W. Bush won four years ago and that McCain desperately needs to win now.

In its waning days, the race boils down to this, according to polls and political analysts: Obama has several possible ways he can win the 270 votes in the Electoral College needed to claim the White House, while McCain finds he has fewer options and a harder job to clinch the magic number.

"Let me give you the state of the race today. We're a few points down. The pundits have written us off, just like they've done before," McCain told a rally in Dayton, Ohio, yesterday. But, he concluded, "Don't give up hope. Be strong. Have courage. And fight."

McCain insists he's closer than polls show. Some pollsters and even Democratic operatives caution the race could tighten in its closing days as undecided voters settle on a choice.

Wary of overconfidence, Obama yesterday warned his supporters in Canton, Ohio, "Don't believe for one second that this election is over. . . . We have to work like our future depends on it this last week, because it does."

Most polls suggest Obama is running strong enough across the country that his campaign can put together a number of different combinations of usually Republican states now in play, including Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Nevada and North Carolina.

McCain's path to victory is much narrower.

"Add those states [listed above as in play] to those where he already has any lead, and he ends up with a bare 274-vote majority in the Electoral College," said John Pitney, politics professor at Claremont McKenna College.

Another route is to add Pennsylvania, the one usually Democratic state McCain hopes to win, to victories in Ohio, Virginia and Nevada, though McCain trails in polls in all those states.

Obama's campaign insists it's not taking anything for granted. Obama, in a rare moment where he had to play defense, returned to Pennsylvania for a rally in Pittsburgh yesterday after its Gov. Ed Rendell asked the campaign to send him back, just to be sure.

One longtime Democratic operative, Simon Rosenberg, who now runs the think-tank NDN in Washington, said McCain could close the gap by 3 or 4 points, but not enough to overtake Obama's 7-point lead in national polls.

Meanwhile, after months of downplaying his ability to draw large crowds, Obama once again is filling stadiums and arenas with thousands.

And his campaign flexed its fundraising advantage by purchasing a half-hour of prime-time network TV time tomorrow to allow Obama to broadcast an extended campaign commercial.

Obama starts his day today in Pennsylvania and then goes to once solidly Republican Virginia. His running mate, Joe Biden, will be in Florida. Obama will campaign with Bill Clinton in Florida tomorrow.

McCain will join his running mate Sarah Palin at rallies in Pennsylvania today before heading to North Carolina and then Florida. Palin will remain in Pennsylvania.