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Clinton win unlikely to derail Obama nomination

BY CRAIG GORDON | craig.gordon@newsday.com

May 14, 2008

WASHINGTON - This isn't exactly the victory lap Barack Obama had in mind.

A limping Hillary Rodham Clinton trounced him in West Virginia last night by better than 2-1 in early returns - a somewhat humbling finish for a man so close to being the Democratic nominee, but one that seemed unlikely to derail his march to the nomination.

But if Obama thinks getting beaten by Clinton last night is bad, he'd better get ready for what's ahead as he turns to the fall campaign against John McCain. The list of challenges is long: win over disgruntled Clinton supporters, unify battling camps in a critical state like Florida, reassure Jewish voters of his pro-Israel bona fides - and that's just the Democrats.

Here is a to-do list as Obama starts getting ready for November, according to analysts:

Put Clinton away. Obama faces another double-digit blowout loss next Tuesday in Kentucky - but will probably score a victory in Oregon that night to win a majority of pledged delegates. Obama's camp said yesterday it won't declare victory that night - but clearly is hoping a flood of superdelegates will make it official for them.

Get ready to rumble. Republican strategists expect some full-on attacks against Obama this fall, mainly from independent groups not directly affiliated with McCain - just like Democratic-leaning groups will tear into McCain on Iraq, the economy and links to President George W. Bush.

GOP strategists interviewed yesterday said they believe the harshest attacks on Obama would fall under the umbrella of "judgment and inexperience" - ways to link together questions about Obama's readiness to lead, and his relationships with his controversial former pastor and a Weather Underground member.

"You're not going to be in a position of questioning his patriotism. You don't win that debate ever," said one GOP veteran of presidential politics. "But you've got to question his judgment because he's identified himself with people who are America haters."

Obama's camp said it's ready. "We aren't hiding under our desks," said spokeswoman Jen Psaki.

Reintroduce himself. The man in the coffee shop on the morning of the Indiana primary turned away from Obama and said he couldn't vote for him because he's Muslim.

Obama is a Christian, but he's been battling this rumor since the start of the campaign. To many voters, he remains an unknown quantity, so he'll be launching a get-to-know-me tour, including a trip to where he grew up in Hawaii, where his grandfather is buried in a military cemetery.

Get specific. Obama's first stop today is in Macomb County, Mich. - the quintessential home of "Reagan Democrats," those working-class voters who have eluded Obama for weeks. Ed Sarpolus, a longtime Michigan pollster, said he believes Obama's problem with this group is that they don't want to hear gauzy rhetoric about "change" and "hope," but a concrete plan to get the economy back in gear. "He still doesn't have a middle-class message," he said. "Eventually, he'll have to come up with substance or he will lose."

Repair the breach with Clinton supporters. Marvin Manning, who runs a Democratic club at a Boca Raton, Fla., senior-citizen condominium complex, figures 9 out of 10 voters in that heavily Democratic community backed Clinton and will be "very upset" if Obama wins.

Manning's job: Keep them from defecting to McCain. "He has work to do. There's no question about it," Manning said of Obama, who travels to Florida next week. The question for some: "Is he totally prepared to assume the leadership of all the people of this country, without regard to race, religion or anything?" Manning said.

Try to put questions about support for Israel behind him. Another key question in Florida and elsewhere is whether Obama can convince Jewish voters that he is staunchly pro-Israel. Obama has stepped up outreach to Jewish voters, though some conservative blogs are attacking him for saying recently that the Israeli-Palestinian crisis is a "constant wound that ... does infect all our foreign policy."

YESTERDAY'S VOTE

Democratic results as of 12:50 a.m. yesterday.

Barack Obama Hillary Clinton

West Virginia (28 delegates) 26% 67%

DELEGATE SCORECARD

Total delegates at stake: 4,049 Total needed to nominate: 2,025

Won yesterday Super delegates Total

Barack Obama 8 282 1,883

Hillary Clinton 20 273 1,717