NL Central: Perhaps Brewers finally can rise

BY KEN DAVIDOFF | ken.davidoff@newsday.com

April 1, 2007

It's arguably baseball's worst division, yet it has the defending world champion. Gotta love small sample sizes. In any case, those reigning champs, the St. Louis Cardinals, lost a significant amount of talent after the celebration, and they'll be facing challengers to the west, east and north.

In this division this season, 83 victories could get you the title (as it did last year for St. Louis), and 75 wins could place you fourth.

The Cardinals are masters at reloading, with general manager Walt Jocketty, manager Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan turning over personnel the way Paris Hilton goes through significant others. This season, nevertheless, promises to be particularly challenging. Seven pitchers made at least 13 starts for the 2006 Cardinals, and only three - Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder and Anthony Reyes - are on the 2007 roster. And Mulder, recovering from rotator-cuff surgery on his left shoulder, might not be back until the second half. Albert Pujols might have to carry an even greater load this season.

The NL Championship Series Most Valuable Player, Jeff Suppan, stayed within the division, signing with Milwaukee, and the Brewers seem poised for a breakout season. They have starting rotation depth, even if Ben Sheets endures another injury-plagued campaign, and they have an experienced catcher in Johnny Estrada to handle that rotation. There's enough here to make you think the Brewers finally could become relevant again.

The Astros lost Andy Pettitte back to the Yankees, and they'll once again wait patiently on Roger Clemens. But they backed up ace Roy Oswalt with a pair of veterans in Jason Jennings and Woody Williams, and just as important, they upgraded their long-dormant offense by signing Carlos Lee to a six-year, $100-million contract. It would help Houston if it finally produced a respectable first half so it wouldn't have to rely on a trademark late surge.

The Cubs made the most noise in all of baseball during the winter, spending nearly $300 million on talent. New manager Lou Piniella brings so much energy to the party, and Alfonso Soriano is bound to win a few games with his bat. Nevertheless, the pitching staff is thin, which means the forecast calls for periodic Sweet Lou eruptions.

The Pirates and Reds are afterthoughts, for good reason. Give the Pirates the edge because they seem to have better young talent.

STATLINE: The Cubs; all-time home run leader is Sammy Sosa with 545. "Mr. Cub", Ernie Banks, is second with 512.

(1) MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Manager: Ned Yost (fifth season, 291-356).

General manager: Doug Melvin.

2006: 75-87, fourth place.

Outlook: Methodically, and not without setbacks, Doug Melvin has rebuilt this organization, which was in tatters when he took over in September 2002. An 81-81 showing in 2005 preceded last year's disappointing 75-87 record. Aggressive winter moves, however, have set up the Brewers for their first playoff berth since 1982. RHP Jeff Suppan arrives to strengthen the rotation, and it's a bonus that he comes from division rival St. Louis, which will miss his durability. C Johnny Estrada knows how to run a pitching staff, and he can hit, too. The Brewers have a nice lineup and deep bullpen, to boot.

Player to watch: RHP Ben Sheets. Limited to a total of 39 starts in the past two seasons, he needs a healthy 2007 to re-establish himself as elite.

What to expect: The NL Central title, followed by a meek, first-round loss to the Giants.

(2) HOUSTON ASTROS

Manager: Phil Garner (fourth season, 219-179; 15th overall, 927-981).

General manager: Tim Purpura.

2006: 82-80, second place.

Outlook: It had to eat at the Astros as they watched the Cardinals win it all last October. The Astros, in a frenetic, late-season run, nearly overtook St. Louis for the division crown. They fell a game and a half short because of a woeful offense; their .409 slugging percentage ranked 29th (ahead of the Pirates). So welcome aboard, OF Carlos Lee, who will be looked upon to provide some thump. With RHPs Jason Jen- nings and Woody Williams replacing Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens (who could still return), RHP Brad Lidge will get another chance to close despite last year's struggles.