Does an ace really help you win?

When Johan Santana turned down a contract extension offer from the Minnesota Twins last November, the baseball industry took on a new shape.

Suddenly, the Hot Stove League became a referendum on the importance of an ace starting pitcher, with the two New York clubs playing the roles of Point and Counterpoint.

Because the Twins possessed no appetite for retaining Santana and letting him become a free agent upon the conclusion of the 2008 campaign, they put the two-time Cy Young Award winner on the trade market. The Mets, Yankees and Red Sox quickly became the top competitors for Santana's services.

The Red Sox, as defending world champions and the employers of Josh Beckett, operated from a position of strength. The Yankees and Mets, both of whom saw their starting pitching falter at the wrong times -- the American League Division Series and September, respectively -- held a greater need for Santana.

First the Yankees said no. Then the Mets said yes.

"Everybody's got their number one starting pitcher, but there are very few real number ones," Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said. "I value it a great deal, but clearly I didn't value it enough to trade some high-end, knocking-on-the-door kids [Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy], plus 150 games in centerfield [from Melky Cabrera]."

"When this guy became available, we just had to get him," Mets COO Jeff Wilpon said. "It was not a tough decision."

For the Mets, the Feb. 2 acquisition of Santana -- in return for Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey -- washed away the cloud that loomed over the franchise since last year's historic collapse. With Santana anchoring the rotation and with Pedro Martinez, John Maine and Oliver Perez each dropping a rung on the hierarchy, the Mets once again are the consensus favorites to win the National League East.

For the Yankees, Cashman's decision to pass on Santana has generated a most unusual split reaction.

The biggest criticism has come internally, from senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner, who wanted Santana but met substantial resistance from Cashman and general partner Hal Steinbrenner, Hank's younger brother.

The Yankees' fan base has appeared far more supportive; at an event in January before the Mets' acquisition of Santana, Cashman received a huge ovation when he expressed his desire to keep young players such as Hughes and Cabrera rather than deal them for Santana.

The strong reaction in all corners speaks to the impact that ace pitchers -- even the mere discussion of them -- can have on a team and its market.

"If you look at what other teams that have a bona fide number one can do, it's pretty important to have that guy who is a real stopper," Wilpon said. "The Red Sox have been pretty successful since they've had that number one guy. The Yankees, in the past, have always had that number one. Some years, they had two number ones. They were very successful doing that. The other teams who have won, you don't usually see too many teams win the World Series without a bona fide number one."

Jeff Wilpon and his father, CEO Fred Wilpon, have backed up such a belief with repeated actions. They bought out Nelson Doubleday in August 2002. In the 5 1/2 years since, they have acquired three pitchers who had won multiple Cy Youngs, spending $35 million to land Tom Glavine in November 2002, $52 million on Martinez in December 2004 and now $137.5 million on Santana -- a total of $224.5 million.

For Cashman, the Twins' demands for talent plus the money the Yankees would have to pay Santana felt like too much, even though he thinks so highly of the lefthander that he proclaimed, "Johan Santana will win the Cy Young Award for the National League this year."

"With that said," Cashman added, "I've learned over time that players having huge success in one market doesn't translate over to a player having success in other markets."

So Cashman will make a pennant run with Opening Day starter Chien-Ming Wang, who is highly regarded for his toughness and durability but -- with only 180 strikeouts in 4171/3 innings in the last two seasons -- relies heavily on his defense to get outs. And Cashman banks on the notion that his youngsters, particularly Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, can evolve into home-grown aces.

Wilpon is right; nearly every world champion relies on an ace to get to the parade, whether it's an up-and-comer (Beckett) or a virtual one-hit wonder ( Jose Contreras with the 2005 White Sox) or an all-timer ( Roger Clemens with the 2000 Yankees, Randy Johnson with the 2001 Diamondbacks). The 2002 Angels, whose "number one" ( Jarrod Washburn) posted a 5.02 ERA that October, provide the exception to the rule.

It's difficult to develop an ace, and for many teams, it can be tough to retain one. The Indians will draw attention all season long because their ace, reigning American League Cy Young winner C.C. Sabathia, can be a free agent after this season. Cleveland, a mid-market team, offered the 27-year-old a four-year extension for about $80 million -- with a $10-million increase for this year added on -- that Sabathia turned down.

If Indians general manager Mark Shapiro gave Sabathia what the Mets gave Santana and Sabathia suffered a serious injury, the Indians would be hamstrung payroll-wise for years. So they'll likely watch Sabathia go elsewhere -- perhaps the Yankees -- for a nine-figure deal, hope 2007 sensation Fausto Carmona maintains his excellence, and figure out other ways to contend.

"We might not spend it on a pitcher," Shapiro said. "Ultimately, everything you do, you want it to impact run differential. We'll plug that gap somewhere else. That is a challenge to us."

The Mets and Yankees have greater room for error. The Mets could accept that Martinez's shoulder injury cost him a year, and the Yankees have been able to construct a team while paying Carl Pavano $39.95 million to do nothing.

Yet one team took the plunge on Santana and the other opted against it. The Mets are going with the historical trend. The Yankees acknowledge the trend; they're just trying to attain it differently.

By next winter, about a year from when the Twins decided they couldn't afford to keep Santana, the referendum will play itself out. We'll see, once more, just how essential an ace is.

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