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If Mets don't win now, they could have long wait

Ken Davidoff

May 28, 2008

With aging players like Carlos Delgado and little farm system depth to speak of, the Mets' window of opportunity to be a championship team is closing. (Chicago Tribune Photo)

Maybe we can figure out why Willie Randolph was so jovial yesterday, cracking wise during his pregame news conference, acting as if he didn't possess a worry in the world.

Willie's worst-case scenario is that, soon enough, he gets paid a nice amount of money to do nothing. But the Mets will still be here, in danger of writing another terrible chapter in their uneven history.

In danger, really, of falling into another abyss, the size of 1992 or 2002.

What's going on here at Shea Stadium is bigger than just Willie Randolph. By combining a large payroll, aging players and a shallow farm system with their difficult start to the 2008 season, the Mets have created a high-stakes scenario for themselves.

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If they don't get "deep into the playoffs," to borrow Fred Wilpon's spring-training mandate, then the Mets risk reverting to what they were before Omar Minaya arrived in September 2004 and created the "New Mets": Overpaid, intensely disliked by their fans and largely irrelevant - all while trying to sell ultra-expensive seats to their new palace, Citi Field.

Now, to be clear: I think the Mets can and will turn this around. As they displayed last night, with Johan Santana's 5-3 victory over the National League East-leading Marlins, they have enough strong components to mount a playoff run.

At this point, of course, we're going to have to see a lot more than just one well-played game.

The Wilpons are putting this entire season on the shoulders of Minaya, which is why ownership didn't put out a statement following Monday's meeting. The decision to retain Randolph was Minaya's - he and his staff concluded that, historically, in-season managerial changes don't have much of an impact; hence the reluctance to make a change - and the fourth-year Mets GM will make the call, ultimately, on if or when to let Randolph go.

Which is at least consistent with the "full autonomy" that Omar got upon returning to the organization from Montreal.

They say that every baseball team should be simultaneously running both a one-year plan and a five-year plan, and with the Mets, you can see the one-year plan all the way from Randolph's native South Carolina. It's no coincidence that the Mets have so many veterans on their club. Minaya believes that veterans bring value not only with their on-field contributions, but also with clubhouse leadership.

Yet here, in his fourth year on the job, you struggle to see that five-year plan. That's exemplified in how few replacements the Mets have for their aforementioned, oft-injured veterans. Minaya does a nice job finding forgotten names like Fernando Tatis, who has delivered a short-term jolt. It would be even nicer, though, if the Mets had youngsters to plug in like the Yankees have inserted Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera and Shelley Duncan over the last few years.

Now look beyond this season. Who forms the nucleus of this Mets team for 2009 and beyond?

You've got David Wright. You've got Santana, who has not dominated as hoped but has still pitched very effectively. John Maine appears to be progressing steadily.

After that, it gets slightly hairy. Mets fans seem to hate Carlos Beltran, and now that we know the low-key Beltran pretty well in Year 4, you can understand why he wanted to sign with the Yankees and hide behind Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. Jose Reyes is a daily enigma, mixing his athleticism and happiness with scatterbrained play.

Luis Castillo? Ay yi yi. Brian Schneider will be around next year, and Ryan Church for a few, yet both seem to be complementary players. Billy Wagner has one more year.

And in the minor leagues, you've got only Fernando Martinez, who turns 20 in October and entered last night's action with 39 strikeouts in 157 at-bats.

Yes, the Mets can spend big money on outsiders like free agents C.C. Sabathia and Mark Teixeira. Yet they should know, by now, how unappetizing it can be to deploy that strategy.

There's a great deal riding on this season, and on nights like last night, everything seems possible.

But if you take a step back from the Willie Watch for a moment, you can see why the Wilpons are so anxious for a turnaround. If not this year, then when?