NFL Gridiron Guide Week 10 picks: Giants will cover touchdown spread against Raiders
John BoellJohn Boell
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RAIDERS (3-5) at GIANTS (2-6), 1 p.m.
TV: Ch. 2; Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)
Giants by 7; O/U: 43 1/2
Eli Manning had to be licking his chops watching Eagles QB Nick Foles throw seven TDs against the Raiders last week. Somehow, the Giants are just two games back in the loss column for first place in the NFC L-East division. There's not too many teams I would even think about backing Big Blue as a big favorite, but the Giants have covered their last four home games as favorites. The 11th month hasn't been too kind for the Giants: 18-40-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 60 November games. Oakland QB Terrelle Pryor (knee) is expected to start, but the Raiders will be without RB Darren McFadden (hamstring). Giants make it three in a row.
The pick: Giants
EAGLES (4-5) at PACKERS (5-3)
Packers by 1; O/U: 47
So you feel bad for Aaron Rodgers, who's out with a broken collarbone? What about the Wisconsin woman and Packers fan who was shot with a stun gun by her husband, a Bears fan, after losing a bet on Monday night's Bears-Packers game. (I hope you enjoy the couch, dude!) The husband was arrested, and as Mayville, Wis., police chief Christopher MacNeill told ESPN.com: "You can't make this stuff up!" No, you can't! The injury dropped the spread a whopping eight points after the Eagles opened as a 9-point underdog. Even without Rodgers, the Pack (35-17-2 ATS in last 54 home games ) get the job done.
The pick: Packers
BENGALS (6-3) at RAVENS (3-5)
Bengals by 1 1/2; O/U: 44
The Ravens suffered a surprising loss to the Browns last week, while the Bengals had a few extra days off after an OT loss at Miami. Cincy is 5-2-1 ATS in last eight meetings, and the favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in last four meetings between these two. But I'll take the defending champs at home in a "must-win" game.
The pick: Ravens
LIONS (5-3) at BEARS (5-3)
Bears by 1; O/U: 52 1/2
The Bears caught a good break when Aaron Rodgers suffered a bad break on Monday night. Chicago will have QB Jay Cutler (groin) back in the starting lineup. The Bears, Packers and Lions (off a bye) are tied for first in the NFC North. The Lions, who haven't won a division title since 1993, could very well be in the driver's seat if they win this weekend and again on Thanksgiving vs. Green Bay.
The pick: Lions
RAMS (3-6) at COLTS (6-2)
Colts by 9 1/2; O/U: 44
In last 10 games, Indy is 9-1 ATS vs. losing teams; St. Louis is 8-2 ATS vs. winning teams. Also, the Rams are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. Worth a shot.
The pick: Rams
SEAHAWKS (8-1) at FALCONS (2-6)
Seahawks by 5 1/2; O/U: 44 1/2
Two of the worst cover teams lately: Seattle is 2-4 ATS in last six games; Atlanta is 1-5. I just can't back the Falcons in any way, shape or form.
The pick: Seahawks
BILLS (3-6) at STEELERS (2-6)
Steelers by 3; O/U: 43 1/2
The Bills should be bolstered by the return of QB EJ Manuel. Buffalo could use the help: They are 31st in the NFL in red-zone TD percentage: 42.3 percent (11-for-26). The Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
The pick: Steelers
JAGS (0-8) at TITANS (4-4)
Titans by 12; O/U: 41
The Titans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a cover and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 against the AFC South.
The pick: Jaguars
PANTHERS (5-3) at 49ERS (6-2), 4:05 p.m.
TV: Ch. 5
49ers by 6; O/U: 43
One of the best games of the week and two of the hottest teams to wager in the league. The 49ers have covered five straight. As much as I like the Panthers, who are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, I have a feeling the Niners, coming off a bye, will win big.
The pick: 49ers
BRONCOS (7-1) at CHARGERS (4-4), 4:25 p.m.
TV: Ch. 2
Broncos by 7; O/U: 58
I hope the scoreboard operator is ready for a workout in San Diego. The Broncos are averaging 42.9 points per game. The Chargers, who are 5-2-1 ATS this season, and 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. the Broncos, has offensive firepower, too, so expect a lot of points in this one. Denver is 3-9-2 ATS in last 14 meetings against San Diego.
The pick: Chargers
TEXANS (2-6) at CARDINALS (4-4), 4:25 p.m.
Cardinals by 2 1/2; O/U: 41
Houston is an abysmal 1-7 ATS this season, but has been a good team the past few Novembers with a 7-3 ATS mark in its last 10 November games. Maybe the Texans rally for their coach Gary Kubiak, who left the Sunday night game on a stretcher at halftime. Here's hoping for a speedy recovery, coach.
The pick: Texans
COWBOYS (5-4) at SAINTS (6-2), 8:30 p.m.
TV: Ch. 4; Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9, joined in progress)
Saints by 6 1/2; O/U: 54
There's been some real good Sunday night games this season, and this is another one. Dallas finally found a way to win a close game last week, while the Saints were upset by the Jets. Jimmy Graham will feast on the Cowboys secondary. The Saints are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games.
The pick: Saints
DOLPHINS (4-4) at BUCS (0-8), 8:40 p.m.
TV: ESPN Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)
Dolphins by 2 1/2; O/U: 41
Welcome to the Dysfunctional Bowl 2013! Who would have thought there was an NFL team that would actually make the Bucs seem, almost, normal? Only thing making this game watchable is to count how many times commentator and former Bucs coach Jon Gruden says "Incognito," "Martin" and "Schiano."
The pick: Bucs
STAFF PICKS (best bets in caps)
JOHN BOELL: 58-72-3, 3-6 best bets; Last week 4-9: Giants Packers Ravens Lions Rams Seahawks Steelers Jaguars 49ERS Chargers Texans Saints Bucs
BOB GLAUBER: 65-65-3, 4-4-1; Last week 4-9: Giants Packers Ravens Lions COLTS Seahawks Steelers Titans 49ers Broncos Cardinals Saints Bucs
KIMBERLEY A. MARTIN: 67-63-3, 5-4; Last week 6-7: GIANTS Packers Bengals Lions Colts Seahawks Steelers Titans 49ers Broncos Cardinals Saints Dolphins
TOM ROCK: 60-70-3, 3-6; Last week 4-9: Giants Eagles Ravens Lions Rams Seahawks STEELERS Titans 49ers Broncos Cardinals Saints Dolphins