NFL Gridiron Guide Week 4: Good matchup for Giants, but not for Jets

Mark Herzlich lines up during the first quarter

Mark Herzlich lines up during the first quarter of a football game between the Giants and the Philadelphia Eagles. (Nov. 20, 2011) (Credit: AP)

John Boell

Newsday sports writer John Boell John Boell

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49ERS (2-1) at JETS (2-1)

49ers by 4; O/U: 40 1/2

TV: Ch. 5 Radio: ESPN (98.7)

A month ago, Jets coach Rex Ryan said, "This has a chance to be the best team that I've had since I've been the coach here." Really? Care to take one of those Maury Povich lie detector tests? The only way this team is going to the AFC Championship Game is if they buy tickets. After losing Darrelle Revis, the Jets face a tough team that is coming off a surprising loss. Also, the 49ers spent the week in Ohio to avoid cross-country travel, which may be key. They'll take off against the Jets and bounce back.

THE PICK: 49ers

 

GIANTS (2-1) at EAGLES (2-1), 8:20 p.m.

Eagles by 2; O/U: 47 1/2

TV: Ch. 4 Radio: WFAN (660)

The Giants are underdogs, but I just don't see it, especially after the way they roughed up Carolina last Thursday. The extra time off should benefit the banged-up Giants, who are 1-7 ATS in their last eight meetings vs. the Iggles. Philly is lucky to be 2-1 with a minus-6 turnover margin. QB Michael Vick has turned the ball over nine times (6 INTs, 3 fumbles lost) himself. He's also been hit a league-high 28 times. Osi Umenyiora will get last laugh against LeSean McCoy as Big Blue (5-2 ATS in last 7 in Philly) not only covers, they win outright.Tough words for this Philly native to type.

THE PICK: Giants

 

1 P.M. GAMES

PATRIOTS (1-2)

at BILLS (2-1)

Patriots by 4; O/U: 51

Bill Belichick isn't going to get back last Sunday's game that got away from him and the Patriots in Baltimore and he's also not getting back the $50G he was fined after grabbing an official. Now, it's payback time for the Pats, who are 7-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight trips to Buffalo. Beware of an angry Bill, Bills!

THE PICK: Patriots

 

SEAHAWKS (2-1)

at RAMS (1-2)

Seahawks by 2 1/2; O/U: 38

Be honest, how many times have you seen the Hail Mary pass that Russell Wilson threw to M.D. Jennings, uhh, sorry, Golden Tate Monday night? (I nearly broke my DVR). I love the quote from Tate, who admitted to pushing off on the play, but said, "I wasn't trying to cheat." Ha! Seattle is 5-13 overall on the road since 2010, but Rams' Steven Jackson isn't 100 percent.

THE PICK: Seahawks

 

VIKINGS (2-1)

at LIONS (1-2)

Lions by 4 1/2; O/U: 51

Minnesota registered the upset of Week 3 by beating the 49ers. I've been impressed with Vikings' Christian Ponder, who is second in the NFL in completions (70.1 percent). Take the points in a close NFC North game.

THE PICK: Vikings

 

 

CHARGERS (2-1)

at CHIEFS (1-2)

Chiefs by 1; O/U: 44 1/2

Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles now has two career games of at least 230 yards; only Hall of Famer and Long Island product Jim Brown (3) has more. San Diego is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 trips to KC, but I'm fading the trend.

THE PICK: Chargers

 

TITANS (1-2)

at TEXANS (3-0)

Texans by 12; O/U: 45

The Titans have given up an NFL-worst 113 points. Will the Texans drop 50? Houston's defense, led by DE J.J. Watt (5 1/2 sacks) will swat away the Titans.

THE PICK: Texans

 

 

PANTHERS (1-2)

at FALCONS (3-0)

Falcons by 7; O/U: 48 1/2

As good as Atlanta has been on both sides of the ball, that's how dreadful Carolina has been. The Panthers have had almost 10 days to regroup from their Thursday thumping against the Giants, but that's not enough time against Matt Ryan at home.

THE PICK: Falcons

 

4 P.M. & LATER GAMES

DOLPHINS (1-2)

at CARDINALS (3-0)

Cardinals by 5 1/2; O/U: 39 1/2

It seems the best defenses are in the NFC West (49ers, Seahawks, even the Rams). But none may be better than the Cardinals, off to their best start since 1974, having given up an NFL-low 40 points. The Dolphins should have beaten the Jets. But they'll struggle vs. Arizona's defense, led by LB Daryl Washington. He has 29 tackles and is one of five Cardinals defenders with two sacks.

THE PICK: Cardinals

 

RAIDERS (1-2)

at BRONCOS (1-2), 4:05 p.m.

Broncos by 6 1/2; O/U: 48 1/2

TV: Ch. 2

Peyton Manning was taken first overall by the Colts in 1998. Five years later, Carson Palmer went No. 1 to the Bengals. Now they're each trying to make their marks with a second franchise. Oakland, which is coming off a big comeback win over the Steelers, is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Denver, and 6-0 ATS in its last six games in the Mile High City.

THE PICK: Raiders

 

 

REDSKINS (1-2)

at BUCS (1-2), 4:25 p.m.

Bucs by 2 1/2; O/U: 47 1/2

Some trends after three weeks. Note: these numbers are courtesy of the now-dismissed "replacement refs" (go back to your day jobs, fellas). Underdogs are 29-18-1 ATS, including 13-6 ATS at home. Home teams are 31-17 overall (including 19-10 as favorites). However, I don't think the home favorite trend works here.

THE PICK: Redskins

 

BENGALS (2-1)

at JAGUARS (1-2), 4:05 p.m.

Bengals by 2 1/2; O/U: 42 1/2

Can't wait to see Ed Hochuli and the real refs back on the field. You know Hochuli, the guy who looks more like a linebacker than a line judge? He said he was so excited about the news that he "got down on the floor and started doing pushups." Cincy will flex just enough muscle to win.

THE PICK: Bengals

 

SAINTS (0-3)

at PACKERS (1-2), 4:25 p.m.

Packers by 7 1/2; O/U: 54

TV: Ch. 5

Mike McCarthy and the Packers are a class act. I wouldn't have let my team go out for the extra point after that abomination. Before the replacement refs sacked the Pack, Seattle's defense did it eight times. Their O-line is an issue and as bad as the Pack needs this win, so do the Saints, trying to avoid an unthinkable 0-4 start.

THE PICK: Saints

 

MONDAY NIGHT

BEARS (2-1)

at COWBOYS (2-1)

Cowboys by 3 1/2; O/U: 42

TV: ESPN Radio: WFAN (660)

I'll take the better quarterback (Tony Romo) and better defense (Dallas has No. 1 ranked 'D'). Let's hope for no more Monday Night Football Fiascos. Thank goodness the real refs are back!

THE PICK: Cowboys

 

STAFF PICKS

JOHN BOELL

17-29-2, 1-2 Best Bets

49ers -- Best Bet

Giants

Patriots

Seahawks

Vikings

Chargers

Texans

Falcons

Cardinals

Raiders

Redskins

Bengals

Saints

Cowboys

TOM ROCK 22-24-2, 1-2

49ers

Giants

Patriots

Seahawks

Vikings

Chargers

Titans

Falcons -- Best Bet

Cardinals

Raiders

Redskins

Bengals

Packers

Cowboys

BOB GLAUBER

18-28-2, 0-2-1

49ers

Giants

Patriots

Seahawks

Lions

Chiefs

Texans

Falcons

Cardinals -- Best Bet

Broncos

Bucs

Bengals

Packers

Cowboys

KIMBERLEY A. MARTIN 26-20-2, 2-1

49ers

Giants

Patriots

Rams

Lions

Chargers

Titans

Falcons

Cardinals

Broncos -- Best Bet

Bucs

Bengals

Packers

Cowboys