NFL Gridiron Guide Week 6: Jets will cover vs. Steelers; Lay the 27 points and take Denver

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Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning passes the ball Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning passes the ball against the Dallas Cowboys during the second quarter. (Oct. 6, 2013) Photo Credit: AP

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John Boell Newsday sports writer John Boell

Boell has worked in the Newsday sports department in various capacities since 1999. In 2010, he became Newsday's

STEELERS (0-4) at JETS (3-2), 1 p.m.

Jets by 2 1/2; O/U: 41

TV: Ch. 2; Radio: ESPN (98.7)

Well, I was correct about last week's Jets game being ugly. I just had the wrong team, right, Atlanta? I was impressed by the Jets' play at the Georgia Dome. Their defense as a whole and their offensive line had great games. Rookie QB Geno Smith had his best NFL game, throwing three touchdowns -- and more importantly, no interceptions -- and leading the Jets to last-second win. This could be a dangerous week for Gang Green against a desperate Steelers team looking for win No. 1 and coming off a bye. I keep waiting for the real Steelers to appear. Some road cautions, though: Pittsburgh is 5-15 against the spread (ATS) in its last 20 road games, and I don't know if its offense is good enough to score much on the Jets' No. 2-ranked defense. I do know that Kylie the Jets fan and loyal Gridiron Guide reader will have a great birthday weekend as her Jets improve to 4-2.

The pick: Jets

1 P.M. GAMES

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PACKERS (2-2) at RAVENS (3-2)

Packers by 2 1/2; O/U: 48 1/2

One of the best matchups of Week 6. The Ravens have covered four straight home games, while the Packers have lost four in a row on the road. Green Bay won't have LB Clay Matthews, but I think they have enough offense to get it done. Plus, the Pack is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games vs. a team with a winning record.

The pick: Packers

RAMS (2-3) at TEXANS (2-3)

Texans by 7 1/2; O/U: 43

Houston, you have a problem, and his name is Matt Schaub. The QB is setting records, and not the good kind. He has now thrown a pick-6 in an NFL-record four straight games. Neither team has looked great, but the Rams are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.

The pick: Rams

EAGLES (2-3) at BUCS (0-4)

Eagles by 1; O/U: 46

Nothing says excitement more than Nick Foles vs. Mike Glennon, right? (Michael Vick may still play). This could be a trap game for Philly after last week's win over the Giants, but I'll step on the spring door and hope I don't fall.

The pick: Eagles

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LIONS (3-2) at BROWNS (3-2)

Lions by 2 1/2; O/U: 44 1/2

This should be an interesting matchup featuring the Browns' fourth-ranked defense vs. the Lions' ninth-ranked offense. I'll fade the recent numbers that favor Cleveland (7-3 ATS vs. teams with a winning record; 5-1 ATS in last six games following a cover). Call it a hunch.

The pick: Lions

BENGALS (3-2) at BILLS (2-3)

Bengals by 7; O/U: 41 1/2

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The inconsistent Bengals are 3-0 this season vs. Super Bowl-winning QBs (Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady). Next up? Former practice squad QB Thad Lewis, making just his second NFL start. Good luck against Mike Zimmer's 'D', kid!

The pick: Bengals

PANTHERS (1-3) at VIKINGS (1-3)

Vikings by 2 1/2; O/U: 44

If this game was a political election and I had to vote on it, I'd pick a third-party candidate. My bosses won't allow me to write "neither" as my pick, so I'll play this trend: The Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a week they didn't cover.

The pick: Panthers

RAIDERS (2-3) at CHIEFS (5-0)

Chiefs by 9; O/U: 40 1/2

Oakland has won five of its last six vs. the Chiefs, and is 7-0 ATS in its last seven meetings in KC. The underdog is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these two AFC West foes.

The pick: Raiders

4 P.M. AND LATER GAMES

JAGUARS (0-5) at BRONCOS (5-0), 4:05 p.m.

Broncos by 27; O/U: 54

One team could go 16-0. The other could go 0-16. But this week, the only number anyone's talking about is 27. Thanks to our friends in Vegas, this is truly a historic game, featuring the largest point spread since the AFL-NFL merger. I've heard people say, "You have to take the points here." But do you? Denver beat Philly by 32 two weeks ago. Give the points.

Denver 41, Jacksonville 10.

The pick: Broncos

TITANS (3-2) at SEAHAWKS (4-1), 4:05 p.m.

Seahawks by 13 1/2; O/U: 40 1/2

Seattle is coming off two straight road games, including a tough loss at Indy. But the Seahawks return home to one of the most difficult places for an opponent to play at. Seattle is 16-4 overall and 17-3 ATS in their last 20 regular-season home games. The Titans are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 road games.

The pick: Seahawks

SAINTS (5-0) at PATRIOTS (4-1), 4:25 p.m.

Patriots by 2 1/2; O/U: 50 1/2

TV: Ch. 5

Cincy took care of Tom Brady and the Pats last week as Tommy Boy saw his 52-game TD-pass streak snapped. The Pats managed just six points. Six! Drew Brees is 3-0 in his career vs. the Patriots, including a 2009 game when he had a perfect passer rating (158.3). The Saints keep on marching.

The pick: Saints

CARDINALS (3-2) at 49ERS (3-2), 4:25 p.m.

49ers by 10 1/2; O/U: 41 1/2

Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

The Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last nine meetings, but they're also 5-1 ATS in their last six NFC games. The Niners are 1-5 ATS vs. NFC West foes. Worth a shot.

The pick: Cardinals

REDSKINS (1-3) at COWBOYS (2-3), 8:30 p.m.

Cowboys by 5 1/2; O/U: 53 1/2

TV: Ch. 4 Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

Amazing that Washington is only a game back of first-place Dallas and Philly in the NFC East. What's not amazing is that Tony Romo throws for more than 500 yards and five TDs last week, and all anyone talks about is the late INT that set up Denver's winning field goal. Talk about, "What have you done for me lately?" Romo is second in the NFL in QB rating (114.3) and has 13 TDs and two INTs. But the Redskins, coming off a bye, are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings in Dallas, and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings overall.

The pick: Redskins

MONDAY NIGHT

COLTS (4-1) at CHARGERS (2-3), 8:40 p.m.

Colts by 1 1/2; O/U: 50

TV: ESPN Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

So far, no sophomore slump for QB Andrew Luck nor the Colts. Indy is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 regular-season games. The Colts looked impressive in beating Seattle last week, and they'll keep it going against a Chargers team that was flat at Oakland.

The pick: Colts

STAFF PICKS (best bets in caps)

JOHN BOELL: 38-36-3, 1-4 best bets; Last week: 6-8

Jets Packers Rams Eagles Raiders Lions Bengals Panthers Broncos Seahawks Saints Cardinals Redskins COLTS

BOB GLAUBER: 38-36-3, 2-2-1; Last week: 5-9

Jets Ravens Texans Eagles Chiefs LIONS Bengals Vikings Broncos Seahawks Patriots 49ers Cowboys Colts

KIMBERLEY A. MARTIN: 38-36-3, 2-3; Last week: 7-7

Jets Packers Texans Eagles Chiefs Lions Bengals Vikings Jaguars Seahawks PATRIOTS 49ers Cowboys Colts

TOM ROCK: 33-41-3, 1-4; Last week: 6-8

Jets Packers Rams Eagles Chiefs Lions Bills PANTHERS Jaguars Titans Saints Cardinals Cowboys Colts

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