NFL Week 10 Gridiron Guide picks: Giants will cover, but Jets in trouble

Tom Coughlin celebrates a touchdown during a game

Tom Coughlin celebrates a touchdown during a game against the Washington Redskins at MetLife Stadium. (Oct. 21, 2012) (Credit: Jim McIsaac)

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GIANTS (6-3) at BENGALS (3-5)

Giants by 4; O/U: 48 1/2

TV: Ch. 5. Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

After winning the Super Bowl twice in the last five seasons, you'd think Tom Coughlin and the G-Men wouldn't have to hear about SHS anymore. You know, the Giants' dreaded Second-Half Swoon: 53-19 in the first half under Coughlin and 27-38 after that. Eli Manning has struggled lately, but so has Cincy: four straight losses. Vinny the Bengals fan from Brooklyn won't be happy after the Giants (10-4-1 ATS in last 15) regroup.

THE PICK: Giants

 

JETS (3-5) at SEAHAWKS (5-4), 4:05 p.m.

Seahawks by 6; O/U: 38 1/2

TV: Ch. 2; Radio: ESPN (98.7)

One of the biggest storms to ever hit the East Coast, and Jets coach Rex Ryan was nowhere to be heard. Coincidence? I think not. That's OK, coach. Some NFL players spoke for you recently. According to a recent Sporting News poll of 103 players, guess who was chosen as the most overrated coach in the NFL? You guessed it: Rex Ryan, c'mon down! Ryan had 35 votes. (Put a dash between that number and it's the Jets' record.) The Jets, coming off a bye, have a tough road test. Seattle is 15-5 against the spread (ATS) in its last 20 home games -- what do they put in the coffee in the Emerald City? The Jets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 when they are an underdog of six points or less.

THE PICK: Seahawks

 

FALCONS (8-0)

at SAINTS (3-5)

Falcons by 2 1/2; O/U: 53 1/2

I know the Saints have the NFL's worst-ranked defense, but they benefit from playing in the Superdome and are coming off a big win over the Eagles on Monday Night Football. Former Jet Jonathan Vilma is an underrated linebacker and his presence gives the 'D' a huge lift. The Saints have covered eight of their last 12 NFC South games. The Falcons are 6-6 ATS vs. the division over the same stretch.

THE PICK: Saints

 

CHARGERS (4-4)

at BUCS (4-4)

Bucs by 3; O/U: 47 1/2

Rookie Doug Martin rushed for 251 yards and 4 TDs last week, but now faces the fourth-best rush 'D' in the NFL. The Bucs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as favorites of four or fewer points. Plus, visiting underdogs are 51-32-3 ATS this season.

THE PICK: Chargers

 

RAIDERS (3-5)

at RAVENS (6-2)

Ravens by 7 1/2; O/U: 46

Many compare the Bucs' Doug Martin to a younger Ray Rice, the Raven considered one of the most talented backs in the league. I think there's a good chance Rice picks up 200-plus yards against the Raiders, too.

THE PICK: Ravens

 

TITANS (3-6)

at DOLPHINS (4-4)

Dolphins by 6; O/U: 44

The Titans' 51-20 loss at home prompted owner Bud Adams to say, "In my 50 years of owning an NFL franchise, I am at a loss to recall a regular-season home game that was such a disappointment." Ouch! QB Jake Locker's return could provide a spark.

THE PICK: Titans

 

 

BRONCOS (5-3)

at PANTHERS (2-6)

Broncos by 4; O/U: 47

Peyton and Eli Manning may have went over the family's text plan this week exchanging notes. Last Sunday, Peyton won at Cincy, where the Giants play. In Week 3, Eli carved up Carolina. I'm listening to Editor Joe: Take Denver until it doesn't cover.

THE PICK: Broncos

 

 

BILLS (3-5) at PATRIOTS (5-3)

Patriots by 11; O/U: 52

The Pats are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. the Bills. Enough said.

THE PICK: Patriots

 

 

LIONS (4-4) at VIKINGS (5-4)

Lions by 2; O/U: 46 1/2

Detroit is on a roll, but I'll go with this trend: They're 1-4-2 ATS in last seven trips to Minnesota. THE PICK: Vikings

 

COWBOYS (3-5)

at EAGLES (3-5), 4:25 p.m.

Cowboys by 1 1/2; O/U: 44 1/2

TV: Ch. 5

This is the Hot-Seat Bowl. In fact, I'll go on record as saying neither Dallas' Jason Garrett or Philly's Andy Reid will be coaching their respective teams next season. The loser here is done as far as the NFC playoffs. The winner will still have a shot, but might be getting just a one-or-two week reprieve. Interesting, as bad as the Eagles have been, especially their depleted offensive line which has lost four starters this season to injuries, they opened this game as one-point favorites but have been bet down to an underdog. Both teams have bad betting numbers and trends. Enjoy your reprieve, Coach Garrett. Take care, Coach Reid.

THE PICK: Cowboys

 

RAMS (3-5)

at 49ERS (6-2), 4:25 p.m.

49ers by 11 1/2; O/U: 38 1/2

I read that last week's slate of games was one of the worst NFL betting weekends ever for sportsbooks in Las Vegas. Why? After Monday night's game, favorites covered 10 of the 14 games last week. (I picked a lot of chalk last week, got lucky, and went 9-5). The numbers favor the 49ers (San Fran is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games; Rams are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings in San Francisco.). But it's too big a number for two teams that are coming off a bye. That's why I'm fading the trends here.

THE PICK: Rams

 

TEXANS (7-1)

at BEARS (7-1), 8:20 p.m.

Bears by 1; O/U: 41

TV: Ch. 4

Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

This is the best matchup of the week -- maybe even the year so far -- and could be a possible Super Bowl preview as two of the best defenses square off. Chicago's Charles "Peanut" Tillman -- who forced four fumbles last week -- may miss the game because of the birth of his daughter. That could help deliver a win for the Texans, who are 4-1 ATS as underdogs of two or less points dating back to 2009.

THE PICK: Texans

 

CHIEFS (1-7)

at STEELERS (5-3), 8:30 p.m.

Steelers by 12 1/2; O/U: 42

TV: ESPN

Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9).

Classy move by the Steelers last week, flying in on Sunday not to displace victims of Sandy. The Steelers are 4-9 ATS when favored by more than eight dating to 2009. KC is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 games as underdogs of more than eight points.

THE PICK: Chiefs