Don't count on Pedro just yet

History of positive comebacks from rotator-cuff surgery is not promising

Jim Baumbach

11:42 AM EDT, August 21, 2007

It's never been done. . .

Never been done. . .

Pedro Martinez's trainer has spoken those words to him so many times during his rehab workouts, a painful reminder to the Mets rehabbing pitcher that he is attempting to do something that is not easy.

The words motivate Pedro to work harder, to prove history wrong. To show the baseball world that pitchers coming off rotator-cuff surgeries can still dominate, even one at 35 years old who has many miles on his slight frame and a diminished fastball to boot.

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Maybe when Pedro returns, he will still be the same dazzling, intimidating pitcher he once was. Maybe. But even Pedro knows, and admits, the odds are against it.

He doesn't have to look far for examples. His own brother, Ramon, saw his baseball career fall victim to the surgery. He compiled a 123-77 record with a 3.45 ERA when he had surgery to fix his rotator cuff in 1998, at the age of 30. He returned 15 months later but was far from the same pitcher. He lasted only three more seasons, going 12-11 with a 5.95 ERA.

There are success stories, albeit just a few.

Curt Schilling had surgery on his rotator cuff in 1995 at the age of 28, and he obviously has done just fine since. Trevor Hoffman also has had tears in his rotator cuff fixed by surgeries, though his quick recovery time both times indicate that his procedures weren't as severe.

But take a look at the list of pitchers who were never the same after undergoing a surgery on their rotator cuff and you can understand why Pedro hasn't exactly come out and said he's going to carry the Mets in September.

Bret Saberhagen, Jimmy Key, Tony Armas Jr., Wilson Alvarez, John Rocker and Steve Karsay are some of the notables who had this type of surgery, and it's clear that most, if not all, were never the same after the surgery.

Of course that's not to say Pedro can't beat the odds. We all know he's proven to be incredibly durable and resilient, posting Sandy Koufax-like numbers during this record-breaking era of home runs and steroids.

It's going to be very interesting to watch the return of Pedro play out, because the Mets are in a tough position as well. How much time can they reasonably give him if he struggles? He is the great Pedro, however, he is less than a year removed from the type of surgery that lacks the track record of, say, Tommy John surgery.

No one has the answers, least of all Pedro. He keeps admitting that after every start. Last night, after throwing 52 of 72 pitches for strikes in five strong innings, he said, "If I keep it as steady as I did today, I could, but I don't know how much success I would have. I will just have to be calm and let things happen."

It was his third rehab start. Pretty soon he will be back with the Mets, maybe in only another week or two. Given the state of their rotation, Mets fans are eager to point out that all they need from Pedro is five respectable innings every five or six days. But in these type of situations, when a pitcher is coming back from a serious surgery, it usually turns out to be all or nothing.

Which will it be?