Colts, Luck should cover vs. Jaguars
at JAGUARS (1-7), 8:20 p.m.
Colts by 3; O/U: 42 1/2
TV: NFL Network.
Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9).
It's interesting how the week-to-week, ebb-and-flow of the NFL can swing opinions so easily and quickly.
During the first two months of the season, who would you have picked as NFL Rookie of the Year? Probably, Washington's Robert Griffin III, right? Maybe RG3's running back, Alfred Morris, or Indy's Andrew Luck, with some votes for Cleveland's Trent Richardson or the Bucs' Doug Martin?
After last week, did your opinions change? Mine did.
Luck threw for an NFL single-game rookie-record 433 yards with two touchdowns and no picks as Indianapolis topped Miami, 23-20, and, most importantly, helped the Colts improve to 5-3.
If the season ended today the Colts would get one of the AFC's two wild-card spots; an impressive turnaround considering how bad the Colts were a year ago (2-14).
The betting line opened Sunday night with the visiting Colts a 3-point favorite. It's surprising to me the line hasn't budged. Jacksonville did beat Indy, 22-17, in Week 3 (and has covered 4 of last 5 vs. Indy), but that was with RB Maurice Jones-Drew, who had 177 yards and a score. MJD will miss his third straight game with a foot injury.
The Jags have yet to win at home (0-4), have lost five straight overall, and are the lowest-scoring team in the NFL (14.6 ppg). They are 4-4 against the spread (ATS) this season. The Colts are 5-3 ATS.
I know, I know: Home teams are 16-5 the last 21 Thursday night games. But I can't go against my pick for Rookie of the Year, Luck with the newly shaved head, and his Colts teammates, many of whom also adopted the bald look to support ailing coach Chuck Pagano.
THE PICK: Colts