DOLPHINS (4-5) at BILLS (3-6) 8:20 p.m.
Bills by 1 1/2; O/U: 45 1/2
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TV: NFL Network. Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9 joined in progress).
Sometimes a short turnaround is just what a team wants. Miami figures to be in that position after a terrible performance last week against Tennessee. The Dolphins lost 37-3 to the Titans on Sunday, which was Miami's worst home loss since 1968, before its entire team was even born!
Things were bad early for Miami. Running back Reggie Bush fumbled in the first quarter and spent most of the game on the bench (he had just 4 carries for 21 yards). Coach Joe Philbin also sat veteran offensive lineman Richie Incognito for a long stretch after his unnecessary roughness penalty knocked the Fins out of field-goal range in the second quarter.
Miami looks to keep its slim playoff hopes alive against a Bills team that is winless in the AFC East (0-3). Both clubs are 4-5 against the spread (ATS) in '12.
Home teams are 16-6 overall the last 22 Thursday night games. However, the Bills -- who have lost three straight and five of their last six overall -- are without running back Fred Jackson (298 yards, 3 TDs), who suffered a late concussion against New England last week.
The Dolphins, who have lost their last two games, are 6-2 ATS in their previous eight meetings against the Bills.
In a close one, I think Miami bounces back against the Bills' 31st ranked defense (410 yards per game), which has allowed a league-worst 31.7 points a game.
THE PICK: Dolphins