NFL playoff predictions by quarterback

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Paul Bessire and John Ewing of PredictionMachine.com ran 100,000 season simulations, 50,000 in which each NFL team had its starting quarterback and 50,000 in which each team had its backup for all 16 games. Here's the likelihood each team has of making the playoffs with their starting quarterback and their backup.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Starter: Tom Brady Backup: Jimmy Garoppolo Make playoffs
(Credit: Getty Images / Mike Lawrie)

Starter: Tom Brady
Backup: Jimmy Garoppolo
Make playoffs with starter: 79 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 24.6 percent

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Starter: Aaron Rodgers Backup: Scott Tolzien Make playoffs
(Credit: Getty Images / Maddie Meyer)

Starter: Aaron Rodgers
Backup: Scott Tolzien
Make playoffs with starter: 86.8 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 38.8 percent

DENVER BRONCOS

Starter: Peyton Manning Backup: Brock Osweiler Make playoffs
(Credit: AP / John Froschauer)

Starter: Peyton Manning
Backup: Brock Osweiler
Make playoffs with starter: 70.8 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 24.3 percent

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PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Starter: Ben Roethlisberger Backup: Bruce Gradkowski Make playoffs
(Credit: Getty Images / Stacy Revere)

Starter: Ben Roethlisberger
Backup: Bruce Gradkowski
Make playoffs with starter: 42.9 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 6.6 percent

DALLAS COWBOYS

Starter: Tony Romo Backup: Brandon Weeden Make playoffs
(Credit: AP / Lenny Ignelzi)

Starter: Tony Romo
Backup: Brandon Weeden
Make playoffs with starter: 43.4 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 10.7 percent

ATLANTA FALCONS

Starter: Matt Ryan Backup: T.J. Yates Make playoffs
(Credit: Getty Images / Daniel Shirey)

Starter: Matt Ryan
Backup: T.J. Yates
Make playoffs with starter: 32.0 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 4.7 percent

GIANTS

Starter: Eli Manning Backup: Ryan Nassib Make playoffs
(Credit: AP / Bill Kostroun)

Starter: Eli Manning
Backup: Ryan Nassib
Make playoffs with starter: 31.9 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 5.2 percent

CAROLINA PANTHERS

Starter: Cam Newton Backup: Derek Anderson Make playoffs
(Credit: AP / Heather Ainsworth)

Starter: Cam Newton
Backup: Derek Anderson
Make playoffs with starter: 64.0 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 41.9 percent

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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Starter: Andrew Luck Backup: Matt Hasselbeck Make playoffs
(Credit: AP / Michael Perez)

Starter: Andrew Luck
Backup: Matt Hasselbeck
Make playoffs with starter: 85.3 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 63.3 percent

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Starter: Drew Brees Backup: Luke McCown Make playoffs
(Credit: AP / Gail Burton)

Starter: Drew Brees
Backup: Luke McCown
Make playoffs with starter: 24.9 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 4.9 percent

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Starter: Andy Dalton Backup: A.J. McCarron Make playoffs
(Credit: AP / John Minchillo)

Starter: Andy Dalton
Backup: A.J. McCarron
Make playoffs with starter: 42.4 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 25.5 percent

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Starter: Alex Smith Backup: Chase Daniel Make playoffs
(Credit: AP / Rick Scuteri)

Starter: Alex Smith
Backup: Chase Daniel
Make playoffs with starter: 35.7 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 19.5 percent

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Starter: Joe Flacco Backup: Matt Schaub Make playoffs
(Credit: AP / Patrick Semansky)

Starter: Joe Flacco
Backup: Matt Schaub
Make playoffs with starter: 42.1 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 27.3 percent

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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Starter: Russell Wilson Backup: Tarvaris Jackson Make playoffs
(Credit: Getty Images / Otto Greule Jr)

Starter: Russell Wilson
Backup: Tarvaris Jackson
Make playoffs with starter: 83.3 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 69.9 percent

DETROIT LIONS

Starter: Matthew Stafford Backup: Dan Orlovsky Make playoffs
(Credit: AP / Rick Osentoski)

Starter: Matthew Stafford
Backup: Dan Orlovsky
Make playoffs with starter: 22.9 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 10.2 percent

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Starter: Philip Rivers Backup: Kellen Clemens Make playoffs
(Credit: AP / Lenny Ignelzi)

Starter: Philip Rivers
Backup: Kellen Clemens
Make playoffs with starter: 27.5 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 15.5 percent

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Starter: Teddy Bridgewater Backup: Shaun Hill Make playoffs
(Credit: Getty Images / Joe Robbins)

Starter: Teddy Bridgewater
Backup: Shaun Hill
Make playoffs with starter: 51.2 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 39.4 percent

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Starter: Ryan Tannehill Backup: Matt Moore Make playoffs
(Credit: Getty Images / Jonathan Daniel)

Starter: Ryan Tannehill
Backup: Matt Moore
Make playoffs with starter: 52.7 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 41.3 percent

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Starter: Colin Kaepernick Backup: Blaine Gabbert Make playoffs
(Credit: AP / George Bridges)

Starter: Colin Kaepernick
Backup: Blaine Gabbert
Make playoffs with starter: 13.1 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 2.2 percent

BUFFALO BILLS

Starter: EJ Manuel Backup: Matt Cassel Make playoffs
(Credit: Getty Images / Brett Carlsen)

Starter: EJ Manuel
Backup: Matt Cassel
Make playoffs with starter: 28.7 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 20.0 percent

CHICAGO BEARS

Starter: Jay Cutler Backup: Jimmy Clausen Make playoffs
(Credit: AP / Charles Rex Arbogast)

Starter: Jay Cutler
Backup: Jimmy Clausen
Make playoffs with starter: 11.3 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 3.3 percent

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Starter: Josh McCown Backup: Johnny Manziel Make playoffs
(Credit: Getty Images / Jason Miller)

Starter: Josh McCown
Backup: Johnny Manziel
Make playoffs with starter: 20.9 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 14.0 percent

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Starter: Carson Palmer Backup: Drew Stanton Make playoffs
(Credit: Getty Images / Christian Petersen)

Starter: Carson Palmer
Backup: Drew Stanton
Make playoffs with starter: 18.4 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 11.5 percent

TENNESSEE TITANS

Starter: Marcus Mariota Backup: Zach Mettenberger Make playoffs
(Credit: Getty Images / Daniel Shirey)

Starter: Marcus Mariota
Backup: Zach Mettenberger
Make playoffs with starter: 15.2 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 9.4 percent

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Starter: Jameis Winston Backup: Mike Glennon Make playoffs
(Credit: AP / Jim Mone)

Starter: Jameis Winston
Backup: Mike Glennon
Make playoffs with starter: 11.3 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 7.2 percent

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Starter: Derek Carr Backup: Christian Ponder Make playoffs
(Credit: AP / Tony Avelar)

Starter: Derek Carr
Backup: Christian Ponder
Make playoffs with starter: 16.9 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 13.1 percent

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Starter: Sam Bradford Backup: Mark Sanchez Make playoffs
(Credit: AP / Matt Rourke)

Starter: Sam Bradford
Backup: Mark Sanchez
Make playoffs with starter: 57.5 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 53.9 percent

ST. LOUIS RAMS

Starter: Nick Foles Backup: Austin Davis Make playoffs
(Credit: Getty Images / Ezra Shaw)

Starter: Nick Foles
Backup: Austin Davis
Make playoffs with starter: 27.4 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 23.8 percent

HOUSTON TEXANS

Starter: Brian Hoyer Backup: Ryan Mallett Make playoffs
(Credit: Getty Images / Bob Levey)

Starter: Brian Hoyer
Backup: Ryan Mallett
Make playoffs with starter: 33.2 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 32.3 percent

JETS

Starter: Ryan Fitzpatrick Backup: Geno Smith Make playoffs
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(Credit: Andrew Theodorakis)

Starter: Ryan Fitzpatrick
Backup: Geno Smith
Make playoffs with starter: 13.8 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 12.9 percent

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Starter: Robert Griffin III Backup: Kirk Cousins Make
(Credit: AP / David Richard)

Starter: Robert Griffin III
Backup: Kirk Cousins
Make playoffs with starter: 22.6 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 22.0 percent

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Starter: Blake Bortles Backup: Chad Henne Make playoffs
(Credit: Getty Images / Stacy Revere)

Starter: Blake Bortles
Backup: Chad Henne
Make playoffs with starter: 2.3 percent
Make playoffs with backup: 4.6 percent

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