LOOKIN AT LUCKY

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Garrett Gomez

Post: 1

Odds: 3-1

Last three: 3-1-1

Even before Eskendereya was scratched, this guy was my pick. When he drew the dreaded rail, doubts arose, but I'm sticking with him. He's the most talented and battle-tested horse, and though trouble-prone, he usually overcomes it. No bargain at 3-1, true, but he has worked brilliantly at Churchill and his odds should drift up.

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ICE BOX

Trainer: Nick Zito

Jockey: Jose Lezcano

@NewsdaySports

Post: 2

Odds: 10-1

Last three: 1-5-1

Came charging late to win substandard Florida Derby March 20. Zito has won the Derby twice, but another prep might have helped. He's proven at 11/8 miles and pedigree says yes to 1¼, but the six-week layoff is a concern.

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NOBLE'S PROMISE

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Jockey: Willie Martinez

Post: 3

Odds: 12-1

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Last three: 5-2-2

Might be one of the weakest horses ever to earn more than $800,000. Pedigree says sprinter/miler, and he's lost four in a row around two turns. He's 0-for-2 on dirt but almost beat Lookin At Lucky twice, so he is outrunning his bloodlines.

SUPER SAVER

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Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Calvin Borel

Post: 4

Odds: 15-1

Last three: 2-3-1

Almost caught Line of David at Oaklawn, and won two-turn stakes as a 2-year-old at Churchill. Could be pace-compromised because he usually is first or second. It's tough to learn a new trick in the Derby, but if Borel works out a stalking rail trip, you never know.

LINE OF DAVID

Trainer: John Sadler

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Post: 5

Odds: 30-1

Last three: 1-1-1

Hung on gamely to win Arkansas Derby, his first try on dirt. Very quick, but can't expect him to last 1¼ miles on a contested pace. Won his last three leading all the way, and those tactics won't work here.

STATELY VICTOR

Trainer: Mike Maker

Jockey: Alan Garcia

Post: 6

Odds: 30-1

Last three: 1-5-8

His 40-1 Blue Grass shocker ended a five-race skid. A Polytrack fluke, or is he getting good at the right time? Has a terrific Derby pedigree (by Ghostzapper out of a Dynaformer mare), but he's 0-for-2, beaten 15 lengths, on dirt. Don't read too much into Keeneland form.

AMERICAN LION

Trainer: Eoin Harty

Jockey: David Flores

Post: 7

Odds: 30-1

Last three: 1-4-3

California-based colt led all the way in very weak Illinois Derby, his dirt debut. Seriously outclassed in field overloaded with better speed types.

DEAN'S KITTEN

Trainer: Mike Maker

Jockey: Robby Albarado

Post: 8

Odds: 50-1

Last three: 1-2-4

Was far back only time on dirt. Beat third-rate group easily in Lane's End at synthetic Turfway, but wouldn't read much into that. Can't recommend.

MAKE MUSIC FOR ME

Trainer: Alexis Barba

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Post: 9

Odds: 50-1

Last three: 6-1-3

Only one win (on grass) in eight starts, and showed little in Blue Grass. Seriously up against it in dirt debut for Barba, who's trying to become the first woman to train a Derby winner.

PADDY O'PRADO

Trainer: Dale Romans

Jockey: Kent Desormeaux

Post: 10

Odds: 20-1

Last three: 2-1-3

Has done his best work on turf, consistent with his grass pedigree. Tiring second on Polytrack in Blue Grass was OK, but he's never been on dirt since career debut in slop. Can't recommend.

DEVIL MAY CARE

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Post: 11

Odds: 10-1

Last three: 1-5-11

Filly rallied powerfully to win the Bonnie Miss at Gulfstream and worked brilliantly last Saturday at Churchill. Before Eskendereya was scratched, she seemed likely to go in the Kentucky Oaks, and I don't know if she would have won that. She's no Eight Belles or Rags to Riches.

CONVEYANCE

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Martin Garcia

Post: 12

Odds: 12-1

Last three: 2-1-1

One of many need-to-lead types, but he's 4-for-5 and classier than most of them. First defeat was a close second last time in the Sunland Park Derby. Should be near the front for a mile or so, but after that?

JACKSON BEND

Trainer: Nick Zito

Jockey: Mike Smith

Post: 13

Odds: 15-1

Last three: 2-2-2

Second in his last two to the sidelined Eskendereya, but the problem is that the total margin was 18¼ lengths. Hasn't run a bad one (5-for-9, four second places), but he'd need a giant leap forward.

MISSION IMPAZIBLE

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

Post: 14

Odds: 20-1

Last three: 1-4-2

Closed well in weak Louisiana Derby, only his second win in five career starts. Likely to improve, and off-the-pace style meshes well with likely quick pace, but 1¼ miles in top company might be too much, too soon.

DISCREETLY MINE

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Post: 15

Odds: 30-1

Last three: 4-1-4

One of the lesser Pletcher entries, his best race was a wire job in weak Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Other win also was on the lead; looks like another pace casualty.

AWESOME ACT

Trainer: Jeremy Noseda

Jockey: Julian Leparoux

Post: 16

Odds: 10-1

Last three: 3-1-4

Had an eventful trip when third in the Wood. Showed strong closing punch winning dirt debut in the Gotham. Trainer Jeremy Noseda expected him to regress in the Wood, and he lost a shoe early on and didn't relax. Off-the-pace style suits speed-packed field.

DUBLIN

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Jockey: Terry Thompson

Post: 17

Odds: 12-1

Last three: 3-3-2

Can The Coach get his fifth Derby win and first since Charismatic in 1999? Lost five in a row but was a close third to Lookin At Lucky in last two. Doesn't seem to want to win; might fit underneath in exotics.

BACKTALK

Trainer: Tom Amoss

Jockey: Miguel Mena

Post: 18

Odds: 50-1

Last three: 3-1-8

Winless past a mile and showed little when a far-back third in poor Illinois Derby; overmatched against top 3-year-olds.

HOMEBOYKRIS

Trainer: Rick Dutrow

Jockey: Ramon Dominguez

Post: 19

Odds: 50-1

Last three: 2-5-5

Colt partly owned by Joe Torre hasn't been around two turns this year and ran fifth in 11/8-mile Remsen last fall; many stamina doubts. Trainer Rick Dutrow is a master, but trying the Derby off a nine-week layoff is wildly ambitious.

SIDNEY'S CANDY

Trainer: John Sadler

Jockey: Joe Talamo

Post: 20

Odds: 5-1

Last three: 1-1-1

He's 3-for-3 this year on Santa Anita's Pro-Ride, leading at every call. Never been more than 2 lengths off the pace and never run on dirt. Very talented, but he'll have to be used hard out of the gate to avoid being hung five-wide into the turn. Like Lookin At Lucky, hurt by the draw.