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Business

Study says NY area to add 929,200 jobs by 2020

There is a sliver of hope for job

There is a sliver of hope for job hunters. An economic forecast released this past week by the U.S. Conference of Mayors states the 30-county region that includes Long Island will have created 9.2 million jobs eight years from now. Credit: AP, 2009

The metropolitan area should add 929,200 jobs by 2020, the most of any urban center in the United States.

An economic forecast, released last week by the U.S. Conference of Mayors, states the 30-county region that includes Long Island will have 9.2 million jobs eight years from now. That's an 11-percent increase from 2010, when 8.3 million residents were employed.

Between 2010 and 2020, employment growth in the metro area will nearly double the rate set in 1990-2000, when 499,000 jobs were added, according to the 141-page report from the IHS Global Insight research firm.

About 91,000 jobs were lost in 2000-10, a period that included two recessions.

"The 2010-20 gain that we are forecasting is partially due to the recession not being as deep in New York . . . you will see a return to normalcy that others will have to wait for," said Jim Diffley, chief regional economist at Colorado-based IHS Global. IHS does economic forecasting for the New York State Senate and state comptroller.

Population growth in the metro area will lag job creation. But Diffley said he isn't expecting widespread worker shortages because people will be delaying retirement. The population will climb 8.4 percent over the next 30 years to 20.7 million in 2042.

The report also includes information about the regional economy's performance.

Gross Metropolitan Product, the value of all goods and services produced in the New York area, rose 1.1 percent last year. That compares to a 1.7-percent increase in the national gross domestic product.

This year, GMP is expected to rise 1.8 percent, while GDP will be up 2 percent.

The metro area fared better than the country in the last recession. GMP grew 0.5 percent in 2008-2010 while GDP shrank 0.3 percent.

Diffley said, "Areas of New York State had a milder recession and recovered sooner than other parts of the country that are still recovering." The 18-month recession ended in June 2009.

The state's chief fiscal officer, Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, agreed, saying he's seen signs "that the economy is starting to come back."

The mayors' conference has commissioned similar reports for several years and the latest examines the role of chemical and plastics manufacturers in regional economies.

Long Island ranks 17th in the country in the sector, based on employment. More than 14,230 people work locally in the industry.

Conference president Michael Nutter, mayor of Philadelphia, said the 2012 report "clearly shows that economic recovery is improving slowly, but surely."

He and others called for more federal funding of education. Mayor Kevin Johnson of Sacramento, Calif., said, "The quality of this nation's workforce and its economic growth is directly tied to the quality of education."

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