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Do Golden Globes really foreshadow the Oscars?

SAVING PRIVATE RYAN (1998) A lot of dubious


A lot of dubious things were loosed on the public in summer '98 - Michael Bay ("Armageddon"), Lindsay Lohan ("The Parent Trap"), "Dr. Dolittle" and "Godzilla." But there were bright spots, too, including Steven Soderbergh's "Out of Sight," which resuscitated George Clooney's film career, and "Ryan," which proved that, if nothing else, Spielberg could open a movie whenever he wanted - though most agree that his only competition for that year's best picture Oscar was "Shakespeare in Love," which came out in December, and won. Credit: Dreamworks

The common thought process is that the Golden Globe Awards represent a preview who will win the Academy Awards.

In an industry that thrives on make-believe, is that really true anymore? With the Oscar nominations set for Tuesday morning, and the Golden Globe winners already crowned, let's find out.

Below is a breakdown of the Golden Globe and Academy Awards from 1996-2009 in the six biggest categories. You'll find that it's not exactly as predictable as it's given credit for, with the exception of best actor and actress. That's because the Golden Globes, voted on by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, breaks its categories into Drama and Musical/Comedy, as opposed to the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts & Sciences will groups them as one for the Oscars.


Best Picture
Year Golden Globes Academy Awards
 2009  "Avatar"  "The Hurt Locker"
 2008  "Slumdog Millionaire"  "Slumdog Millionaire"
 2007  "Atonement"  "No Country for Old Men"
 2006  "Babel"  "The Departed"
 2005  "Brokeback Mountain"  "Crash"
 2004  "The Aviator"  "Million Dollar Baby"
 2003  "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"  "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"
 2002  "The Hours"  "Chicago"
 2001  "A Beautiful Mind"  "A Beautiful Mind"
 2000  "Gladiator"  "Gladiator"
 1999  "American Beauty"  "American Beauty"
 1998  "Saving Private Ryan"  "Shakespeare in Love"
 1997  "Titanic"  "Titanic"
 1996  "The English Patient"  "The English Patient"
 1995  "Sense and Sensibility"  "Braveheart"
Matching rate: 46.7%
Best Actor
Year Golden Globes (Drama, Musical)
Academy Awards
 2009  Jeff Bridges, Robert Downey Jr.  Jeff Bridges
 2008  Mickey Rourke, Colin Farrell  Sean Penn
 2007  Daniel Day-Lewis, Johnny Depp  Daniel Day-Lewis
 2006  Forest Whitaker, Sacha Baron Cohen  Forest Whitaker
 2005  Philip Seymour Hoffman, Joaquin Phoenix  Philip Seymour Hoffman
 2004  Leonardo DiCaprio, Jamie Foxx  Jamie Foxx
 2003  Sean Penn, Bill Murray  Sean Penn
 2002  Jack Nicholson, Richard Gere  Adrien Brody
 2001  Russell Crowe, Gene Hackman  Denzel Washington
 2000  Tom Hanks, George Clooney  Russell Crowe
 1999  Denzel Washington, Jim Carrey  Kevin Spacey
 1998  Jim Carrey, Michael Caine  Roberto Benigni
 1997  Peter Fonda, Jack Nicholson  Jack Nicholson
 1996  Geoffrey Rush, Tom Cruise  Geoffrey Rush
 1995  Nicolas Cage, John Travolta  Nicolas Cage
Matching rate: 60%
Best Actress
Year Golden Globes (Drama, Musical)
Academy Awards
 2009  Sandra Bullock, Meryl Streep  Sandra Bullock
 2008  Kate Winslet, Sally Hawkins  Kate Winslet
 2007  Julie Christie, Marion Cotillard  Marion Cotillard
 2006  Helen Mirren, Meryl Streep  Helen Mirren
 2005  Felicity Huffman, Reese Witherspoon  Reese Witherspoon
 2004  Hilary Swank, Annette Bening  Hilary Swank
 2003  Charlize Theron, Diane Keaton  Charlize Theron
 2002  Nicole Kidman, Renee Zellweger  Nicole Kidman
 2001  Sissy Spacek, Nicole Kidman  Halle Berry
 2000  Julia Roberts, Renee Zellweger  Julia Roberts
 1999  Hilary Swank, Janet McTeer  Hilary Swank
 1998  Cate Blanchett, Gwyneth Paltrow  Gwyneth Paltrow
 1997  Dame Judi Dench, Helen Hunt  Helen Hunt
 1996  Brenda Blethyn, Madonna  Frances McDormand
 1995  Sharon Stone, Nicole Kidman  Susan Sarandon
Matching rate: 80%
Best Supporting Actor
Year Golden Globes Academy Awards
 2009  Christoph Waltz  Christoph Waltz
 2008  Heath Ledger  Heath Ledger
 2007  Javier Bardem  Javier Bardem
 2006  Eddie Murphy  Alan Arkin
 2005  George Clooney  George Clooney
 2004  Clive Owen  Morgan Freeman
 2003  Tim Robbins  Tim Robbins
 2002  Chris Cooper  Chris Cooper
 2001  Jim Broadbent  Jim Broadbent
 2000  Benicio del Toro  Benicio del Toro
 1999  Tom Cruise  Michael Caine
 1998  Ed Harris  James Coburn
 1997  Burt Reynolds  Robin Williams
 1996  Ed Norton  Cuba Gooding Jr.
 1995  Brad Pitt  Kevin Spacey
Matching rate: 53.3%
Best Supporting Actress
Year Golden Globes Academy Awards
 2009  Mo'Nique  Mo'Nique
 2008  Kate Winslet  Penelope Cruz
 2007  Cate Blanchett  Tilda Swinton
 2006  Jennifer Hudson  Jennifer Hudson
 2005  Rachel Weisz  Rachel Weisz
 2004  Natalie Portman  Cate Blanchett
 2003  Renee Zellweger  Renee Zellweger
 2002  Meryl Streep  Catherine Zeta-Jones
 2001  Jennifer Connelly  Jennifer Connelly
 2000  Kate Hudson  Marcia Gay Harden
 1999  Angelina Jolie  Angelina Jolie
 1998  Lynn Redgrave  Dame Judi Dench
 1997  Kim Basinger  Kim Basinger
 1996  Lauren Bacall  Juliet Binoche
 1995  Mira Sorvino  Mira Sorvino
Matching rate: 53.3%
Best Director
Year Golden Globes Academy Awards
 2009  James Cameron  Kathryn Bigelow
 2008  Danny Boyle  Danny Boyle
 2007  Julian Schnabel  Joel and Ethan Coen
 2006  Martin Scorsese  Martin Scorsese
 2005  Ang Lee  Ang Lee
 2004  Clint Eastwood  Clint Eastwood
 2003  Peter Jackson  Peter Jackson
 2002  Martin Scorsese  Roman Polanski
 2001  Robert Altman  Ron Howard
 2000  Ang Lee  Steven Soderbergh
 1999  Sam Mendes  Sam Mendes
 1998  Steven Spielberg  Steven Spielberg
 1997  James Cameron  James Cameron
 1996  Milos Forman  Anthony Minghella
 1995  Mel Gibson  Mel Gibson
Matching rate: 60%

For the record (and your Oscar pool), the 2010 Golden Globe winners were:

Best Picture: "The Social Network" (drama); "The Kids are All Right" (musical/comedy)

Best Actor: Colin Firth for "The King's Speech" (drama); Paul Giamatti for "Barney's Version" (musical/comedy)

Best Actress: Natalie Portman for "The Black Swan" (drama); Annette Bening for "The Kids are All Right (musical/comedy)

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale for "The Fighter"

Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo for "The Fighter"

Best Director: David Fincher for "The Social Network"

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