Do Golden Globes really foreshadow the Oscars?
SAVING PRIVATE RYAN (1998)
A lot of dubious things were loosed on the public in summer '98 - Michael Bay ("Armageddon"), Lindsay Lohan ("The Parent Trap"), "Dr. Dolittle" and "Godzilla." But there were bright spots, too, including Steven Soderbergh's "Out of Sight," which resuscitated George Clooney's film career, and "Ryan," which proved that, if nothing else, Spielberg could open a movie whenever he wanted - though most agree that his only competition for that year's best picture Oscar was "Shakespeare in Love," which came out in December, and won. Credit: Dreamworks
The common thought process is that the Golden Globe Awards represent a preview who will win the Academy Awards.
In an industry that thrives on make-believe, is that really true anymore? With the Oscar nominations set for Tuesday morning, and the Golden Globe winners already crowned, let's find out.
Below is a breakdown of the Golden Globe and Academy Awards from 1996-2009 in the six biggest categories. You'll find that it's not exactly as predictable as it's given credit for, with the exception of best actor and actress. That's because the Golden Globes, voted on by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, breaks its categories into Drama and Musical/Comedy, as opposed to the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts & Sciences will groups them as one for the Oscars.
| Best Picture | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Golden Globes | Academy Awards |
| 2009 | "Avatar" | "The Hurt Locker" |
| 2008 | "Slumdog Millionaire" | "Slumdog Millionaire" |
| 2007 | "Atonement" | "No Country for Old Men" |
| 2006 | "Babel" | "The Departed" |
| 2005 | "Brokeback Mountain" | "Crash" |
| 2004 | "The Aviator" | "Million Dollar Baby" |
| 2003 | "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" | "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" |
| 2002 | "The Hours" | "Chicago" |
| 2001 | "A Beautiful Mind" | "A Beautiful Mind" |
| 2000 | "Gladiator" | "Gladiator" |
| 1999 | "American Beauty" | "American Beauty" |
| 1998 | "Saving Private Ryan" | "Shakespeare in Love" |
| 1997 | "Titanic" | "Titanic" |
| 1996 | "The English Patient" | "The English Patient" |
| 1995 | "Sense and Sensibility" | "Braveheart" |
| Best Actor | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Golden Globes (Drama, Musical) | Academy Awards |
| 2009 | Jeff Bridges, Robert Downey Jr. | Jeff Bridges |
| 2008 | Mickey Rourke, Colin Farrell | Sean Penn |
| 2007 | Daniel Day-Lewis, Johnny Depp | Daniel Day-Lewis |
| 2006 | Forest Whitaker, Sacha Baron Cohen | Forest Whitaker |
| 2005 | Philip Seymour Hoffman, Joaquin Phoenix | Philip Seymour Hoffman |
| 2004 | Leonardo DiCaprio, Jamie Foxx | Jamie Foxx |
| 2003 | Sean Penn, Bill Murray | Sean Penn |
| 2002 | Jack Nicholson, Richard Gere | Adrien Brody |
| 2001 | Russell Crowe, Gene Hackman | Denzel Washington |
| 2000 | Tom Hanks, George Clooney | Russell Crowe |
| 1999 | Denzel Washington, Jim Carrey | Kevin Spacey |
| 1998 | Jim Carrey, Michael Caine | Roberto Benigni |
| 1997 | Peter Fonda, Jack Nicholson | Jack Nicholson |
| 1996 | Geoffrey Rush, Tom Cruise | Geoffrey Rush |
| 1995 | Nicolas Cage, John Travolta | Nicolas Cage |
| Best Actress | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Golden Globes (Drama, Musical) | Academy Awards |
| 2009 | Sandra Bullock, Meryl Streep | Sandra Bullock |
| 2008 | Kate Winslet, Sally Hawkins | Kate Winslet |
| 2007 | Julie Christie, Marion Cotillard | Marion Cotillard |
| 2006 | Helen Mirren, Meryl Streep | Helen Mirren |
| 2005 | Felicity Huffman, Reese Witherspoon | Reese Witherspoon |
| 2004 | Hilary Swank, Annette Bening | Hilary Swank |
| 2003 | Charlize Theron, Diane Keaton | Charlize Theron |
| 2002 | Nicole Kidman, Renee Zellweger | Nicole Kidman |
| 2001 | Sissy Spacek, Nicole Kidman | Halle Berry |
| 2000 | Julia Roberts, Renee Zellweger | Julia Roberts |
| 1999 | Hilary Swank, Janet McTeer | Hilary Swank |
| 1998 | Cate Blanchett, Gwyneth Paltrow | Gwyneth Paltrow |
| 1997 | Dame Judi Dench, Helen Hunt | Helen Hunt |
| 1996 | Brenda Blethyn, Madonna | Frances McDormand |
| 1995 | Sharon Stone, Nicole Kidman | Susan Sarandon |
| Best Supporting Actor | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Golden Globes | Academy Awards |
| 2009 | Christoph Waltz | Christoph Waltz |
| 2008 | Heath Ledger | Heath Ledger |
| 2007 | Javier Bardem | Javier Bardem |
| 2006 | Eddie Murphy | Alan Arkin |
| 2005 | George Clooney | George Clooney |
| 2004 | Clive Owen | Morgan Freeman |
| 2003 | Tim Robbins | Tim Robbins |
| 2002 | Chris Cooper | Chris Cooper |
| 2001 | Jim Broadbent | Jim Broadbent |
| 2000 | Benicio del Toro | Benicio del Toro |
| 1999 | Tom Cruise | Michael Caine |
| 1998 | Ed Harris | James Coburn |
| 1997 | Burt Reynolds | Robin Williams |
| 1996 | Ed Norton | Cuba Gooding Jr. |
| 1995 | Brad Pitt | Kevin Spacey |
| Best Supporting Actress | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Golden Globes | Academy Awards |
| 2009 | Mo'Nique | Mo'Nique |
| 2008 | Kate Winslet | Penelope Cruz |
| 2007 | Cate Blanchett | Tilda Swinton |
| 2006 | Jennifer Hudson | Jennifer Hudson |
| 2005 | Rachel Weisz | Rachel Weisz |
| 2004 | Natalie Portman | Cate Blanchett |
| 2003 | Renee Zellweger | Renee Zellweger |
| 2002 | Meryl Streep | Catherine Zeta-Jones |
| 2001 | Jennifer Connelly | Jennifer Connelly |
| 2000 | Kate Hudson | Marcia Gay Harden |
| 1999 | Angelina Jolie | Angelina Jolie |
| 1998 | Lynn Redgrave | Dame Judi Dench |
| 1997 | Kim Basinger | Kim Basinger |
| 1996 | Lauren Bacall | Juliet Binoche |
| 1995 | Mira Sorvino | Mira Sorvino |
| Best Director | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Golden Globes | Academy Awards |
| 2009 | James Cameron | Kathryn Bigelow |
| 2008 | Danny Boyle | Danny Boyle |
| 2007 | Julian Schnabel | Joel and Ethan Coen |
| 2006 | Martin Scorsese | Martin Scorsese |
| 2005 | Ang Lee | Ang Lee |
| 2004 | Clint Eastwood | Clint Eastwood |
| 2003 | Peter Jackson | Peter Jackson |
| 2002 | Martin Scorsese | Roman Polanski |
| 2001 | Robert Altman | Ron Howard |
| 2000 | Ang Lee | Steven Soderbergh |
| 1999 | Sam Mendes | Sam Mendes |
| 1998 | Steven Spielberg | Steven Spielberg |
| 1997 | James Cameron | James Cameron |
| 1996 | Milos Forman | Anthony Minghella |
| 1995 | Mel Gibson | Mel Gibson |
For the record (and your Oscar pool), the 2010 Golden Globe winners were:
Best Picture: "The Social Network" (drama); "The Kids are All Right" (musical/comedy)
Best Actor: Colin Firth for "The King's Speech" (drama); Paul Giamatti for "Barney's Version" (musical/comedy)
Best Actress: Natalie Portman for "The Black Swan" (drama); Annette Bening for "The Kids are All Right (musical/comedy)
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale for "The Fighter"
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo for "The Fighter"
Best Director: David Fincher for "The Social Network"
