TODAY'S PAPER
Good Morning
Good Morning
EntertainmentMovies

Golden Globes 2018 movie predictions: Will ‘The Shape of Water,’ Emma Stone, ‘Get Out’ win?

Daniel Kaluuya is up for a Globe for

Daniel Kaluuya is up for a Globe for his role in "Get Out." Credit: Universal Pictures

What, no “Wonder Woman”?

The Golden Globes, which will be handed out Sunday night (8, NBC/4), are famous for their idiosyncratic choices, but the omission of “Wonder Woman” from the list of nominees is particularly notable. The film was a critical hit, a box-office smash, the first big-budget female superhero movie and also the first-ever female-directed film to earn $100 million opening weekend — in other words, a great film and a watershed moment for women in Hollywood. I wasn’t the only one who felt that ignoring “Wonder Woman” was more than a typical Golden Globes oversight. It seemed like tone-deafness.

That and other touchy subjects are sure to play out over the course of Sunday’s broadcast as winners are announced and the politically outspoken Seth Meyers serves as host. No matter where you turn, there’ll be a sore point to poke at, whether it’s the age gap between a teenage boy and a grown man in the gay romance “Call Me By Your Name” or the sexual harassment allegation that led to Kevin Spacey being erased from the thriller “All the Money in the World” and replaced by Christopher Plummer — now a nominee for supporting actor. Even the category of best musical or comedy seems fraught with symbolism: Will the best-picture award go to Jordan Peele’s racially charged “Get Out,” a landmark in black cinema, or to Greta Gerwig’s female-led coming-of-age film “Lady Bird”?

And we haven’t even mentioned the inevitable jokes about Donald Trump! That’s Meyers’ job, though. Mine is to pick who should win at this year’s Golden Globes, and who will mostly likely take home the statue. Here’s my list:

  

BEST MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA

“Call Me By Your Name”

“Dunkirk”

“The Post”

“The Shape of Water”

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

WHO SHOULD WIN “Dunkirk.” Judged purely on its artistry, Christopher Nolan’s World War II action-drama is the finest film in this category. Working against it, though, is its backdrop — a historical moment that doesn’t feel terribly topical or urgent.

WHO WILL WIN “The Shape of Water.” Guillermo del Toro’s romantic monster movie feels classic and contemporary all at once, which could prove a winning formula.

  

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA

Jessica Chastain, “Molly’s Game”

Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”

Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Michelle Williams, “All the Money in the World”

WHO SHOULD WIN Hawkins. In the role of a mute woman, she never speaks, but it’s the most expressive and evocative performance you’ll see all year.

WHO WILL WIN McDormand. Her character isn’t a far cry from her Oscar-winning role in “Fargo” — a tough woman in a rural town.

  

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA

Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me By Your Name”

Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”

Tom Hanks, “The Post”

Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”

Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

WHO SHOULD WIN Oldman. His transformation into Winston Churchill, using Kazuhiro Tsuji’s artful prosthetics and his own innate acting skills, may go down as one of the great film performances of all time.

WHO WILL WIN Oldman.

  

BEST MOTION PICTURE, MUSICAL OR COMEDY

“The Disaster Artist”

“Get Out”

“The Greatest Showman”

“I, Tonya”

“Lady Bird”

WHO SHOULD WIN “Get Out.” Jordan Peele’s horror-satire about white racism and black paranoia is the year’s most inventive, original and insightful movie — and not just in the comedy-musical category.

WHO WILL WIN “Get Out.”

  

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Judi Dench, “Victoria & Abdul”

Helen Mirren, “The Leisure Seeker”

Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”

Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”

Emma Stone, “Battle of the Sexes”

WHO SHOULD WIN Stone. As tennis pro Billie Jean King, Stone made for a funny, sexy underdog in a truly winning comedy. Alas, the movie sputtered at the box-office, making Stone an unlikely win.

WHO WILL WIN Ronan. Playing a confused teenager in Greta Gerwig’s lovely coming-of-age movie, Ronan earned some of her best reviews yet. Watch out for Margot Robbie, though, as a possible upset in this very competitive category.

  

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Steve Carell, “Battle of the Sexes”

Ansel Elgort, “Baby Driver”

James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”

Hugh Jackman, “The Greatest Showman”

Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”

WHO SHOULD WIN Carell. His live-wire version of tennis pro Bobby Riggs — trash talker, fame monger, gambling addict — is an absolute delight.

WHO WILL WIN Franco. His incarnation of enigmatic filmmaker Tommy Wiseau, known for making one of the worst movies of all time, is tremendous fun.

  

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”

Hong Chau, “Downsizing”

Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”

Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”

Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

WHO SHOULD WIN Janney. Somehow, she turns the role of the world’s worst mother — LaVona Golden, the loveless parent of Tonya Harding — into an achingly, harrowingly funny performance. Screenwriter Steven Rogers wrote the part specifically for her.

WHO WILL WIN Metcalf. She also plays a flawed mother, in “Lady Bird,” albeit a more tender and empathetic one. It would be hard to disagree completely with this pick.

  

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE

Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”

Armie Hammer, “Call Me By Your Name”

Richard Jenkins, “The Shape Of Water”

Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”

Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

WHO SHOULD WIN Rockwell. He’s always been good at playing a sinister doofus (from “The Green Mile” to “Seven Psychopaths”), but here he has a background role that develops almost into the film’s hero — an impressive 180 that few actors could manage.

WHO WILL WIN Rockwell.

  

BEST DIRECTOR, MOTION PICTURE

Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”

Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk”

Ridley Scott, “All the Money in the World”

Steven Spielberg, “The Post”

WHO SHOULD WIN Nolan. Who else could squeeze one day, one week and one hour of World War II action into one simultaneously unfolding chronology?

WHO WILL WIN Del Toro. His Baroque fairy tale, infused with imagery from classic old movies, resonates on an emotional level more than Nolan’s vision does.

  

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE, MOTION PICTURE

Carter Burwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Alexandre Desplat, “The Shape of Water”

Jonny Greenwood, “Phantom Thread”

John Williams, “The Post”

Hans Zimmer, “Dunkirk”

WHO SHOULD WIN Greenwood. This haunting score, made of wintry piano and warm violins, is easily Greenwood’s best, and possibly one of the best ever. The film, however, hasn’t built much awards-season momentum.

WHO WILL WIN Desplat. The French composer’s classical sensibility, pop smarts and whimsical touch — he whistled the spooky melody himself — will be tough to beat.

AND THE GLOBES FOR TV ...

Who will win the best in TV at the Golden Globes? Here are my educated guesses, with the usual caveat emptor: Please don’t bet anything of value on these predictions. If past is prologue — with the Globes, it always is — then expect the unexpected, perhaps even the nutty.

 

BEST DRAMA

“This Is Us”

“The Crown”

“Game of Thrones”

“The Handmaid’s Tale”

“Stranger Things”

SHOULD WIN “The Handmaid’s Tale”

WILL WIN “Handmaid’s Tale.”

The Globes have yet to bestow a win on “Game of Thrones,” despite four straight nods, and “GoT” may have to wait a bit longer before Golden glory. While The Globes only reluctantly (if at all) give their best drama award to the Emmy winner, it’ll be hard for the Hollywood Foreign Press Association to ignore “The Handmaid’s Tale,” particularly after the year Hollywood just emerged from.

 

BEST COMEDY

“black-ish”

“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

“Master of None”

“SMILF”

“Will & Grace”

SHOULD WIN “black-ish”

WILL WIN “Master of None.”

The Globes can be both peevish and obstinate, particularly when it comes to comedy. How else to explain the presence of “SMILF?” But it shouldn’t be overlooked that the Globes have occasionally managed to get this award exactly right too (last year’s winner, “Atlanta,” as the most recent example), so there’s good reason to assume — or at least hope — the 2017 winner will be right as well. This nominee pool is a tough one, but if it’s between “Master of None” and “black-ish,” expect “None.” (But then again, maybe the GG’s are in a peevish comedy mood this year, hence “SMILF” could have a great night.)

 

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA

Jason Bateman, “Ozark”

Sterling K. Brown, “This Is Us”

Freddie Highmore, “The Good Doctor”

Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”

Liev Schreiber, “Ray Donovan”

SHOULD WIN Odenkirk

WILL WIN Brown.

No offense to last year’s winner, Billy Bob Thornton, but the Globes did bobble this category in 2017. Can it afford two bobbles in a row? Sure. This is the Globes. “Bobble” is its middle name. But with Odenkirk, Brown, and Schreiber in the running, even that would seem impossible (yes, even for the Globes). Winner is Brown.

 

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA

Caitriona Balfe, “Outlander” Starz

Claire Foy,” The Crown”

Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Deuce” HBO

Katherine Langford, “13 Reasons Why”

Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale”

SHOULD WIN Gyllenhaal

WILL WIN Moss.

The surprise name in this category is Langford’s, so don’t be surprised if her name gets called. But this is a terrific lineup of acting power, and with Gyllenhaal in the mix, it’s hard to imagine how it could get much harder. Oh wait, right — Moss is in the mix, too. It’s that much harder. If this is “Handmaid’s” night, as many suspect it will be, then Moss will take home another prestigious award for her Offred.

 

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY

Anthony Anderson, “black-ish”

Aziz Ansari, “Master of None”

Kevin Bacon, “I Love Dick”

William H. Macy, “Shameless”

Eric McCormack, “Will & Grace”

SHOULD WIN Macy

WILL WIN Macy.

Another strong category, another surprise (Bacon). But it’s also fair to assume the Globes want to take the opportunity Sunday to address past misfires, or at least past oversights. Anderson, Ansari and Macy have each had recent nominations, and each is ridiculously worthy. So ...? Winner is Macy.

 

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY

Pamela Adlon, “Better Things”

Alison Brie, “GLOW”

Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

Frankie Shaw, “SMILF”

Issa Rae, “Insecure”

SHOULD WIN Adlon

WILL WIN Brosnahan.

Here’s an interesting and perhaps relevant little side note: No actress in a streaming comedy series has ever won a Globe while two actors have (Gael Garcia Bernal and Jeffrey Tambor). Could this be a deciding factor Sunday? If it is, then the deserving Adlon will get bypassed, for ... drum roll ... Brosnahan. (Unless it’s Shaw. Hey! It’s the Globes. Be prepared to say, “who?”)

 
VERNE GAY

WHERE TO WATCH

ON TV

Preshow

“Countdown to the Red Carpet” (4 p.m., E!)

“E! Live from the Red Carpet” (6 p.m., E!)

“2018 Golden Globes Arrival Special” (7 p.m., NBC/4)

The show

“The 75th Annual Golden Globe Awards” (8-11 p.m., NBC/4)

Post-show

“E! After Party” (11 p.m., E!)

 

STREAMING

“The HFPA Presents: Globes Red Carpet Live,” the official red carpet preshow, will stream live on the Golden Globes Facebook page (www.facebook.com/GoldenGlobes).

More Entertainment