Will Budweiser's "Lost Dog" become the most Instagrammed, re-tweeted, Facebooked (can something be "Facebooked?") commercial of Super Bowl XLIX?
Conversely, will GoDaddy's puppy ad -- pulled Tuesday even before it caused damage this Sunday -- be the most reviled?
First, let's talk "Lost Dog." Last year's "Puppy Love" was the most most shared commercial in Facebook history, and arguably the most popular ad of the game. Bud released its "Lost Puppy" Wednesday morning, so let the Facebooking begin....
Yes, it's cute. Yes, it's cuddly. Yes, it's a 30-second weepy. Yes, it's also shrewd: An actor that ls a dead ringer for Bradley Cooper's Chris Kyle (of "American Sniper," by far the biggest movie of the year) stars and a dog that's a dead ringer for last year's puppy stars too...
It has "heartstrings" and "heartland" written all over it. "Beer?" Not so much.
But this will be a hit. It's iconography writ large: All-American values etched into this mini-movie where the beer runs cold and the emotions run hot.
Actually, no beer here.
(One small point: What is it with the wolf? Wolves are largely confined to Montana, Wyoming and Minnesota in the lower 48, so let's just assume this ad takes place somewhere in those states. Also, wolves are not known to turn and walk away from prey.)
But it's a good ad. And well done. Jay Scott, who handled last year's puppy hit, does the honors again.
Meanwhile ... while we're on the subject of lost puppies, check out GoDaddy's, which was pulled -- the company says -- after protests over content. Puppy falls out of back of truck? Comes from a puppy mill? Nice! Not.
Sure it got puppy-lovers outraged, and sure it got millions of bloggers to re-post it, like this blogger, most of them clucking furiously.
A win-win for GoDaddy, in other words? Plus, the ad is clearly designed to mimic Bud's "Lost Dog." Nevertheless, this really is one of those "what were they thinking -- or were they thinking?" commercials.
And as we speak, Ad Age is running a poll: Do you think the GoDaddy misfire was was a stunt designed to get social media play, or was it a genuine company mess-up? Cast your votes here!