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'Dancing with the Stars:' The winner is...


....Umm, who is the winner of "Dancing with the Stars," going into night two of the finals?

  Not as apparent as you might think. 

  I've got a crazy feeling the judges want to give it to Chelsea Kane - this season's in-house (Disney Channel) contestant. I've got a crazy feeling ABC and the Disney Channel would too. 

  And wouldn't everyone be shocked if it was Kirstie Alley? 

  That could happen too, because she's got - I'm reasonbly certain, though with "DWTS" you can never be certain about anything - the largest proportion of fan-based votes. Enough to make up for the five-point deficit from last night? Depends to  a small degree on tonight - she dances the Cha-cha - but judges almost always give dancers a perfect thirty on their last dance of the season, so that means she'll still be a five-point deficit tonight.

  Where does this leave Hines Ward?

  Probably with that Mirror Ball. Here is simply why:

  All three dancers should end up with thirties tonight, which means their relative scores stay unchanged. That means the viewers will actually make the final call; Chelsea, I believe, does not have a big fan base, except for the fans that really count (the judges); Hines Ward has a big one, and Kirstie Alley has a slightly larger one. 

   If my very simple arithmetic is right, that means Hines Ward wins. 

  Oh, and by the way, he should win. He was the best, the most improved, and the most charismatic contestant of the season. 


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