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'Dancing With the Stars': Who goes tonight? Beats me!

In this file photo, actor and Iraq War

In this file photo, actor and Iraq War veteran J.R. Martinez is shown in New York. Martinez will be one of 12 celebrities competing on the upcoming season of "Dancing with the Stars." Photo Credit: AP, 2007

Did I tell you, dear reader: I'm out of the "DWTS" prediction business (until next week anyway or until the bottom of this post).

It's a fool's game -- certain to founder on the rocks of capricious voters and false assumptions and erroneous math. I had Chaz Bono pretty much gone last week -- a mathematical near-certainty, I declared! The numbers don't lie. Or do they? 

In any event, last night was so largely even among the weaker dancers -- and I suspect that is exactly as ABC would prefer it -- that any sort of assumptions based on that will instantly be submerged in the swamp of "DWTS" prognosticating.

Yes, this is another way of saying Carson Kressley is a goner.

But wait: What about Chaz? He did OK last night -- Rocky and all -- and Cher in the audience added a hundred thousand or so votes. So he stays. Rob Kardashian? One of this season's surprises -- good surprises? Probably OK. Chynna Phillips, who's slid the past couple weeks? Maybe in the bottom two as well.  

So, here's where we stand: Ricki Lake still favored to win, if judges' scores are the only scores that count, which they don't. J.R. Martinez, above, is probably getting a lot more viewer votes, which means if these two cruise into the final weeks still neck-in-neck, he's favored to win.

Above, "DWTS" contestant J.R. Martinez

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