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The Golden Globes: Who and what will win in TV (and why)

Amy Poehler plays Leslie Knope on NBC's

Amy Poehler plays Leslie Knope on NBC's "Parks and Recreation" Credit: AP

The Golden Globes are here, and thank goodness for that - 6 p.m. Sunday on WNBC for the first red carpet special, 7 for another bigger, redder red carpet special, then finally 8 for the whole shebang . But to the topic of the hour: Who will win on TV? To my predictions, and caveat emptor - no guarantee is made for accurate prognostication, but then there never is...


BEST DRAMA: Will win: "Homeland" - The Globes don't want to disavow last year's choice, and "Homeland" is, after all, the flavor of the month, and had two excellent first episodes.

 Should win: "Breaking Bad" - It is the best show of this group, after all. Would make sense, no?

 Nominees: "Boardwalk Empire" - HBO; "Breaking Bad" - AMC; "Downton Abbey" - PBS; "Homeland" - Showtime; "The Newsroom" - HBO

BEST COMEDY Will win: "Girls" - the Globes desperately want to look like the "cool" awards show, and also to stick it to the Emmys, which overlooked this. "Girls" should help with both goals.

Should win: "Girls" - hey, maybe the Globes will get this one right! By the way, I think the first four episodes of the second season - beginning Sunday - indicate that the sophomore season is superior to the freshman one.  

Nominees: "The Big Bang Theory" - CBS; "Episodes" - Showtime; "Girls" - HBO; "Modern Family" - ABC; "Smash" - NBC

BEST ACTOR/DRAMA: Will win: Jeff Daniels, because the Globes' voters (mostly reporters from overseas who work in Hollywood) think his character is how American TV anchors should (and probably do) behave. Plus, he's a big screen actor, and they love that, too. Plus, he did a great job with all those windy Aaron Sorkin speeches.

Should win: Bryan Cranston. About a tie - but don't expect this because the Globes don't like to ape favored sons of the Emmys. One possibility in his favor - they do know, I presume, that the series is ending, and may want to finally honor him.

Nominees: Steve Buscemi – "Boardwalk Empire" as Enoch "Nucky" Thompson; Bryan Cranston – "Breaking Bad" as Walter White; Jeff Daniels – "The Newsroom" as Will McAvoy; Jon Hamm – "Mad Men" as Don Draper; Damian Lewis – "Homeland" as Nicholas Brody

BEST ACTOR/COMEDY: WILL WIN: Don Cheadle, because the Emmys didn't honor him last season. (Take THAT!) Plus I've seen the second season premiere - he's still good. No shame at all in this choice except....SHOULD WIN: Louis C.K. Maybe too bleak for the walk-on-the-sunny-side-of-street Globe voters.

Nominees:Alec Baldwin - "30 Rock" as Jack Donaghy; Louis C.K. - Louie as "Louie"; Don Cheadle - House of Lies as "Marty Kaan"; Matt LeBlanc - "Episodes" as Fictional Matt LeBlanc; Jim Parsons - "The Big Bang Theory" as Dr. Sheldon Cooper

BEST ACTRESS/DRAMA: WILL WIN: Michelle Dockery. The Globe voters know they've made a mistake not honoring "Downton" earlier; this should make up for that. SHOULD WIN: Dockery, though the competition is rough here. Highly unusual if the worthy Glenn Close gets this, as her last Globe win was back in 2007; rarely if ever do the Globes give a repeat win to someone over such a long interim period.

Nominees:Connie Britton - "Nashville" as Rayna Jaymes; Glenn Close - "Damages" as Patty Hewes; Claire Danes - "Homeland" as Carrie Mathison; Michelle Dockery - "Downton Abbey" as Lady Mary Josephine Crawley; Julianna Margulies - "The Good Wife" as Alicia Florrick

BEST ACTRESS/COMEDY: WILL WIN: Zooey Deschanel. Yup, if only to stick it to the Emmys, who gave Julia Louis-Dreyfus their trophy last year.

SHOULD WIN: Amy Poehler. If anyone anywhere in any of the TV categories is more worthy of a win Sunday night than Poehler - who also co-hosts with Tina Fey - then I'm not sure who that is.

Nominees:Zooey Deschanel – "New Girl " as Jess Day; Lena Dunham – "Girls" as Hannah Horvath; Tina Fey – "30 Rock" as Liz Lemon; Julia Louis-Dreyfus – "Veep" as Selina Meyer Amy Poehler – "Parks and Recreation" as Leslie Knope


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