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Forecasters favor above normal temps April through June

For those longing for milder weather, there’s a glimmer of hope.

After this cold stretch in March, with below-normal temperatures expected for the coming week, long-range forecasters are favoring above-normal temperatures, on average, for April through June.

There’s a 50 percent to 60 percent probability for higher temperatures in much of the eastern and southern portions of the country, including Long Island, said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. That’s as opposed to being below or right at average.

With no El Nino or La Nina at play — those are patterns starting in the Pacific that affect weather worldwide — the center’s call was based on varying factors, including soil moisture and snowpack, with short-term climate prediction models also in general consensus, he said. Warmer ocean temperatures along the Eastern Seaboard were also a factor, but to a lesser extent, he said.

The prediction center, which is under the umbrella of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, does not make calls as to how far above normal those temperatures might be. And, of course, there could still be chillier days in the mix.

As for precipitation, the center said there’s an equal chance for above, below and right at normal for that time period, which often happens when there’s not a strong enough signal to support a more specific call.

Average precipitation for April through June at Long Island MacArthur Airport is 12.39 inches, with 58.8 degrees the average temperature, according to the Northeast Regional Climate Center, based at Cornell University in upstate Ithaca.

In addition, Long Island remained in moderate drought, according to this week’s update announced Thursday by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Precipitation from Tuesday’s storm will be factored into next week’s call.

According to the seasonal drought outlook, Long Island is in the category described as “drought removal likely.”


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