New York’s population grew ever so slightly — by 0.07 percent — between July 2016 and July 2017, according to estimates released Wednesday by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The agency said 13,113 new people were counted in the state, bringing New York’s population to 19,849,399 as of July 1.
Fewer births, more deaths and “out-migration,” or people leaving the state, are main factors contributing to the state’s stagnant population figure, experts said.
The nation’s total population grew by about 2.3 million and was 325.7 million, an increase of 0.72 percent since July 2016, according to the new estimates.
Idaho was the fastest-growing state, with a population increase of 2.2 percent, to 1.7 million. Eight states saw population losses, including Wyoming, Mississippi and North Dakota. Puerto Rico had the largest decline of any state or commonwealth — a drop of 2 percent — bringing it to 3.3 million people as of July 1, before the island suffered major damage from hurricanes Irma and Maria.
The data show 190,508 people left New York for other states while 130,411 people came here from other places, for a deficit of 60,097.
“New York is still gaining people — it’s just through immigration,” said William Frey, a demographer with the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.
New York remained the fourth most populous state in the nation, behind California, Texas and Florida.
The Census Bureau also recorded 232,766 births and 159,676 deaths — so the state gained 73,090 through a natural population increase.
But, continuing a trend, the state’s youth population under age 18 has declined nearly 4 percent since the 2010 Census, said Jan Vink, a demographer with Cornell University’s Program on Applied Demographics.
“Young people in New York State are getting older and aging out of the 0-to-17 age group without being replaced,” Vink said. “A big part of that group is school-going age. So, in general you might see classes continuing to get smaller. It has to do with the declining birth rate.”
The birth rate in New York, or the number of births per 1,000 people, has declined from 12.49 in 2011 to 11.73 in 2017. Meanwhile, the death rate, or the number of deaths per 1,000 people, has increased from 7.69 to 8.05 over the same time period — a continuation of a population trend caused in part by the “baby boomer” generation getting older.
“This is a reflection of a continuation of a long-term trend for New York,” said Warren Sanderson, professor of economics at Stony Brook University and an expert on population aging.
The factors behind the leveling-off of the state’s population don’t necessarily have a negative economic impact on New York as a whole, Sanderson said, because young people who are coming here tend to be highly educated professionals settling in areas with well-paying jobs. But because they are moving to high-cost areas and living in smaller quarters, many of them also are not having children — or perhaps are putting off childbearing, he said.
“Young people are not coming to New York to live on farms,” Sanderson said.
Population ups and downs
States with the most growth
The eight states with declines
West Virginia, -0.7%
North Dakota, -0.02%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, national and state population estimates from July 1, 2016 to July 1, 2017.