Spin Cycle

News, views and commentary on Long Island, state and national politics.

   Democrat David Weprin leads Republican Bob Turner 48 percent to 42 with just five weeks to go in the campaign to succeed Congressman Anthony Weiner, according to a Siena College poll out today.

  Geography is a factor.  Weprin, a Queens assemblyman, leads in his home borough 50-40. Turner, who ran against Weiner previously, leads in Brooklyn, 49-43, Siena said.

  Queens makes up about two-thirds of the district, giving Weprin the slight advantage.

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  But Siena pollster Steve Greenberg pointed out that enrolled Democrats have a 3-1 ratio advantage over Republicans. Viewed through that lens, Weprin’s lead is fragile and the seat is up for grabs, Greenberg said.

  “In a district with far more Democrats than Republicans, Turner is garnering the support of nearly one-third of Democrats,” Greenberg said. “He will have to do at least that well on Election Day to have a chance to win, while Weprin will need to bring Democrats ‘back home’ if he wants to crack the 50 percent mark. This figures to be an interesting five weeks, so stay tuned.”