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Stony Brook prof gives Trump huge chance, based on model

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, accompanied by

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, accompanied by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, speaks before a rally in Fort Worth, Texas, Friday, Feb. 26, 2016. Credit: AP / LM Otero

A Stony Brook University political science professor projects — right now — that Donald Trump will be president.

Helmut Norpoth says he used statistical data from the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries to conclude Trump has a 97 percent chance to defeat Hillary Clinton in the general election and a 99 percent chance to beat Sen. Bernie Sanders.

“It is such a wide probability that Trump will win that it’s almost scary,” said Norpoth. “It’s almost too good to be true for Trump.”

Norpoth’s model, created in 1996, assumes in part that the party in the White House for eight years is unlikely to win a third straight term. He said the model has been accurate for every presidential election since 1912, with the exception of the 1960 race when John F. Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon.

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