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Dementia risk declining as new cases are likely to surge

The Washington Post

Dementia risk is on the decline, the chance of developing it dropping 20 percent per decade since the late 1970s, according to a striking new study published Wednesday in the New England Journal of Medicine.

That may be hard to believe, with a tsunami of new dementia cases looming in the near future. By 2025, Alzheimer’s disease alone will rob 7.1 million people over age 65 of their memories, their ability to function, their very personalities — a 40 percent increase from today. The Alzheimer’s Association has predicted that by 2050 the disease will cost $1.1 trillion.

But both facts appear to be true. The aging of the baby boomers means dementia cases will surge to an all-time high — the sheer number of older people living longer means that even a drop in the incidence of the disease won’t solve that problem, which will exact a huge health and financial toll.

But despite the popular perception that getting old invariably means people go gray and begin to lose their memory, the new data strongly suggest that, over the last few decades, the risk of developing dementia has receded for people with at least a high school education, raising hope that it might be possible to prevent one of the scariest risks of aging.

“Can we, a couple of decades down the road, bend the arc? . . . Stroke used to be the second leading cause of death, and now it’s the fifth. Maybe we can do this for dementia, too,” said Sudha Seshadri, a professor of neurology at Boston University School of Medicine, who led the study.

The study can’t answer the obvious next question: Why?

Some of the improvement is linked to better control of blood pressure and cardiovascular health and a decrease in the risk of developing dementia after a stroke, but not all. The drop was led by a decrease in dementia caused by blood flow problems; the decline in Alzheimer’s disease was not statistically significant. Seshadri plans to dig deeper into the data to try to discern what environmental factors or lifestyle changes might explain the changes.

Seshadri and her colleagues examined data from the long-running Framingham Heart Study, which has a storied reputation in medical history. Scientists began collecting data from more than 5,000 residents of Framingham, Massachusetts, in 1948. In the decades since, that has been a gold mine and researchers have continued to follow the original subjects’ offspring.

It is best known for helping scientists make the connection between cardiovascular disease and high cholesterol, blood pressure and obesity. In 1975, the panel of tests the study subjects took was expanded to include cognitive assessment.

The new study showed that the risk of developing dementia was declining, providing the strongest evidence yet of an unexpected phenomenon that had been sporadically reported over the years.

There are caveats. The Framingham study does not include a diverse population, so it remains to be seen if the trend is true for other racial groups. The effect was seen only in people who had at least a high school education.

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