A continuing drop in serious crime in New York City this year, combined with a recent decline in homicides, could push the number of killings to near or below record low levels in 2016, according to an analysis of NYPD data.
In addition, a similar falloff in many categories of serious felonies could drop the number of major crimes to below 100,000 by years end, a key statistical benchmark for police officials in gauging public safety, the data showed.
Crime trends in the city will be the subject of a news conference Tuesday by Mayor Bill de Blasio and NYPD Commissioner James O’Neill. They are expected to laud the continuing fall in crimes through October, when homicides for the year fell 5 percent from 2015 while all serious crimes declined by 3.4 percent from a year earlier.
Through Oct. 30, the city recorded 285 homicides, compared with 300 last year, the data showed. The record-low homicide number for any year in the modern era of CompStat record-keeping was 333, reached in 2014. With an average of less than one homicide a day in the city, the number of killings could come in at or below that level if a recent cooling-off in murders continues.
The record-high number of killings was 2,245 in 1989.
Similarly, the total number of serious felonies — including homicide, grand larceny, assault, rape and others — could come in at or below 100,000, a level that has not occurred in the CompStat era. So far this year, the city has recorded 84,064, police said.
In 1993, the city recorded 430,460 serious felonies.
“The numbers over the year continue to be good on comparative numbers,” NYPD spokesman Stephen Davis said Monday. “It is not over ’til it is over. But if the trend continues, we very well may be in for a record year.”
Richard Aborn, head of the Citizens Crime Commission, said the trends so far were a “remarkable achievement.” Aborn said the results stem from the NYPD use of the precision policing concept, which is focused on getting “bad actors and getting them off the street.”
Aborn also believes the NYPD’s heightened focus on guns is not only getting more weapons off the streets but is helping build better criminal cases. Aborn also heralded the new neighborhood policing concept, which he said “is beginning to have an impact.”
Former NYPD detective Joseph Giacalone, who is now an instructor in policing, said he believed the crime trends also reflect the impact of gentrification.
“We don’t have the usual pockets of crime we used to have that drive . . . [crime rates],” Giacalone said. “The very wealthy aren’t doing street crimes.”
Giacalone also said good work by doctors in emergency rooms is saving lives.