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Above-average temps likely from July to Sept., outlook says

Beachgoers bask in the final moments of daylight

Beachgoers bask in the final moments of daylight at Jones Beach in Wantagh, July 2015. Credit: Jonah Markowitz

Those longing for better beach weather can take heart.

Long-range forecasters during a Thursday media call indicated probability for July to deliver above-average temperatures for the northeastern United States. That, and an even stronger likelihood for the July-to-September period to do the same.

That’s according to outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center, which is under the umbrella of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

There’s a 40 percent to 50 percent chance for July to come in warmer than its monthly norm — make that a 50 percent to 60 percent chance for July through September. In both cases those calls for warmer conditions are as compared to below or right at average, which are also possible but less likely.

At Long Island MacArthur Airport, the average monthly temperature for July is 73.9 degrees, with 70.8 degrees the norm for the July through September period, according to the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Of course, variations can be expected in actual temperatures throughout the region, said Jessica Spaccio, climatologist with the regional center, based at Cornell University.

As for precipitation, the forecasting signals were not strong enough to tilt probability in any one direction, so for now the call is for an equal chance of above, below or right at normal.

On another note, forecasters also reiterated at least a 70 percent chance for the development of a climate pattern that affects weather worldwide and leads to conditions that make it easier for tropical storms to develop in the North Atlantic.

La Niña, with its cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, is expected to be under way during the peak hurricane months of August to October, forecasters said in their May outlook.

Hurricane forecasters have predicted near-normal activity for the season that officially started in June and lasts through the end of November.

They also indicated uncertainty, early on, in that forecast, given potentially “reinforcing or competing climate influences on tropical storm development,” said Gerry Bell, the climate center’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster.

Their next update is planned for Aug. 11.

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