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Forecast: Surprisingly warm temps dominate first part of October

The first week of October promises to be a toasty one on Long Island, this as Octobers go, with further warmth also expected into next week, forecasters say.

Of the week ahead not one day is set to deliver the cool autumn conditions that the month is known for, with temperatures forecast to be mostly well above normal.

This week is looking at early morning lows primarily in the low to mid-60s at Long Island MacArthur Airport, forecasters say, warming up later in the day to the low to mid-70s, even low 80s, which smacks more of June and July than the month that brings us fall foliage and trick-or-treaters.

Tuesday, seeing some early morning patchy fog and chances of showers and thunderstorms late evening and at night, was forecast to start off with an early dip to the low 60s, and then warm up to the mid-70s during the day, the National Weather Service said. That’s as the airport’s normal low for the day is 51 degrees, with 68 the normal high.

Wednesday and Thursday, with a mix of sun and clouds, were set to do that one better — cooling down only to the mid-60s in the early morning hours, then warming up to around 80 degrees later in the day.

Conditions are to be “remarkably warm” as the month gets rolling, said Tim Morrin, a weather service meteorologist in Upton. That’s thanks to a massive ridge of high pressure building at high altitudes over the eastern United States, he said, one that’s going to stick around at least into next week.

Indeed, the Climate Prediction Center is indicating a whopping 90 percent probability for an area of the eastern U.S., Long Island included, to average out at warmer than normal temperatures from Oct. 7 to 11. The center even did a little crowing on Twitter, saying that its forecast confidence doesn’t “get much higher” than its current outlook for the 6 to 10 days ahead.

Morrin confirmed that, saying that it’s rare for the center to show “confidence of 90 percent on above or below anything.”

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