Hurricane Dorian will skirt eastern Long Island as a weaker storm Friday and early Saturday, national forecasters said.
The storm is forecast to be about 200 miles southeast of Montauk Point on Friday night, according to the National Hurricane Center, "and that's good news," said Tim Morrin, an Islip-based National Weather Service meteorologist.
As the storm moves northeast, it is likely to accelerate "and stay quite a distance from the southeast coast of Long Island," Morrin said.
Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, and Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket are now under a tropical storm warning, the National Hurricane Center said.
By the time Dorian’s outermost winds come anywhere near eastern Long Island, it likely will have been downgraded to a tropical storm, forecasters said. The minimum sustained wind speed for hurricanes is 74 mph.
A high rip current risk is in effect through Saturday evening Islandwide, the National Weather Service said. And a high surf advisory is in effect from 2 p.m. Friday until 9 p.m. Saturday.
Erosion is another local risk.
“All the ocean beaches are susceptible,” Morrin said. “The propagation of waves crashing into the beach — waves would occur first in south New Jersey and then pretty quickly across the South Shore of Long Island,” Morrin said.
Locally, clouds might roll in starting Thursday, and South Fork residents and visitors on Friday could be dodging intermittent rain, Morrin said.
As of 8 p.m. Thursday, Dorian's sustained winds were clocked at 100 mph, making it a Category 2 storm, a downgrade from Category 3 earlier in the day. It was moving about 10 mph and was about 30 miles south of North Carolina's Cape Fear and 60 miles south of North Carolina's Wilmington, the National Hurricane Center said.