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Long Island weather: Warm and sunny today, chance of storms tomorrow

Adilene hands her mother Yazmin Ramos of Queens

Adilene hands her mother Yazmin Ramos of Queens a shell she found at Sunken Meadow State Park on July 25, 2021. Credit: Raychel Brightman

Clear skies, a daytime high of 82 degrees and calm breezes topping out at 7 mph: the forecast for Saturday on Long Island is just about ideal, though it will be a bit muggy, the forecasters said.

And there are a few other catches this weekend, the National Weather Service said.

The first is a special marine warning for the Long Island Sound west of New Haven in Connecticut and Port Jefferson in New York until 8 p.m. Saturday.

The second is a warm front arriving on Sunday, with rain and thunderstorms predicted to begin as soon as 3 a.m., the weather service said. The chances are 60% that Sunday will pretty much be a washout.

A small craft advisory will run from 8 a.m. Sunday to 6 a.m. Monday, with wind gusts of almost 30 mph predicted, along with seas of 4 to 6 feet.

There is also a high risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches on Sunday, so the weather service issued a hazardous weather outlook.

At least it won't be too hot: the daytime high on Sunday should only reach 80 degrees, the weather service said.

And then later Sunday, a cold front will start heading in.

"Thunderstorms could be strong to severe in the afternoon and evening with the greatest threat of severe weather being tied to wind gusts," the weather service advised.

No more than a quarter of an inch of rain is anticipated, however — nothing like the "moderate risk" of excessive rain over parts of the Southwest or the "slight risk" of severe thunderstorms over some of the Great Lakes, both through Sunday morning, that the weather service’s Weather Prediction Center predicted.

Out west, thermometers will climb into the 100s through Sunday in Idaho and eastern Oregon, the weather prediction center said. All that warmth will then travel to the Northern Plains and Northern High Plains on Monday, ahead of the intense heat already gripping the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley and the Kansas City area.

Right now, the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic look to be in a favored spot, weatherwise: the odds of temperatures running below average from July 31 to August 6 are 33% to 40%, according to the weather service’s Climate Prediction Center.

In contrast, a dreaded heat dome — a high-presssure system that works like a cap, trapping heat beneath it, is predicted for much of the West, Midwest, and South. The odds that temperatures will soar above averages are 40% to 70%, the climate prediction center said.

By Monday morning on Long Island, the cold front should sink "south through the area," possibly sparing the northern part of the tri-state region from downpours or storms. The odds of rain are 20%, the weather service said.

Yet it will be warmer: look for a daytime high of 87 degrees and higher humidity. That combination of heat and moist air could send heat indices as high as 90 to 95, the weather service said.

Tuesday and Wednesday should offer sunny skies and highs in the mid-80s.

While there is a 30% chance of a rainy Thursday, the sun should be back on Friday. Temperatures for both days should run around the low 80s, the weather service said.

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