Usually, storms here dump their loads, then move east over the Atlantic Ocean, never to be heard from again. Not Jose.
Now a tropical cyclone, the former hurricane will hang around well southeast of the Twin Forks for the next couple days and perhaps even wobble westward, the National Weather Service said.
But don’t fear, said meteorologist Jay Engle in the service’s Upton office.
“It’s going to be gradually weakening as it kind of remains stationary or kind of just meanders,” Engle said.
“By Saturday afternoon, we’re fairly confident that much of the Island will see sunshine,” he said.
Jose’s continued presence brings a 50 to 60 percent chance of rain Thursday night through much of Friday, the meteorologist said. A rip current advisory is in effect until 8 p.m. Thursday for Atlantic Ocean beaches, and an advisory for minor coastal flooding for southern bays, southern Nassau and southwestern Suffolk will last through Thursday, the weather service said.
Winds of up to 17 mph are expected for a weekend with temperatures in the high 70s and low 80s, the service said..
The one-time hurricane had moved at a slow 9 mph hour north early this week and was downgraded to a tropical storm when it arrived less than 200 miles southeast of Montauk on Tuesday. Wind gusts of up to 50 mph and ocean surge flooded parts of the southern shores and eroded beaches.
Meteorologically speaking, Jose is almost at a standstill because it’s beyond the reach of current westerlies, prevailing winds that come from the west and usually steer storms east, meteorologists said.
Jose will “barely” move from now until 2 p.m. Saturday, Engle said.
Also, a strong ridge of high-up winds is nudging Jose a little bit west, they said.
“Think of it like a road curving,” Engle said. “The upper-level winds tend to steer these guys. If it runs into a high pressure ridge that’s really strong, it can bend it back the other way. But something like that won’t last too long. Usually the westerlies will eventually take over.
“It is unusual for a system to kind of stall. It’s not going to make a big time commitment to go west. It might wobble west, but it’s not going to go 150, 200 miles west.”
By 2 p.m. Sunday, Jose will be history, at least for the Island, the service said.
Forecasters said skies will be partly sunny through the weekend and the workweek resumes Monday with mostly sunny skies.