Tuesday’s early morning patches of fog should soon burn off and then sun and clouds will fight it out, as the daytime high rises to 72 degrees, the forecasters said.
Clouds likely will win out on Wednesday — which also could start with some swaths of fog — and it will be just a couple of degrees cooler, according to the National Weather Service.
By very early Thursday morning, those clouds will mean business: there is a 40% chance of rain and showers that probably will continue into Friday night, before a sunny weekend, the weather service said.
Showers on the way
The high pressure system delivering the fair weather Tuesday is heading out to sea, the weather service said. A broad low pressure system over the Appalachians will then exert its influence as a warm front reaches western New York by Wednesday afternoon.
Blue skies can result from high pressure systems, as their falling air cools and dries. Rain drops condense from vapor in low pressure systems as their warm air rises.
The warm front will be followed by a cold front, the weather service said.
Its conclusion from this weather pattern was clear: "Expecting rain showers for much of the time period Thursday through Friday."
Temperatures both days will cling to the low 70s.
Thursday’s odds of rain are 70% and wind gusts could hit 24 mph. A total of one inch of rain may fall during the day and night, unless thunderstorms arise, the weather service said.
During this period, it cautioned: "Minor flooding will be possible in areas of poor drainage and low-lying areas with heavier showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night."
Friday’s odds of rain are 60% and there is a 40% chance of showers before 2 a.m on Saturday.
The Saturday to Monday stretch should be mostly sunny, with high temperatures during the day climbing to the upper 70s and low 80s, courtesy of the Bermuda high.
That is a "semi-permanent, subtropical area of high pressure in the North Atlantic Ocean off the East Coast of North America that migrates east and west with varying central pressure," the weather service said.
Parts of the tri-state area could see temperatures spike even higher.
"A warmup (is) expected for max temperatures thereafter through early next week, with highs getting more and more well into the 80s with some low 90s for Monday next week for parts of northeast New Jersey," the weather service said.