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A warmer-than-usual fall season possibly in store for Long Island, NOAA says

FILE: A windsurfer carries his board to the

FILE: A windsurfer carries his board to the water to get in some sailing on an unseasonably warm Sunday afternoon at Heckscher State Park in East Islip on Oct. 9, 2011. Long Island could have a warmer-than-usual fall in 2014, NOAA says. Credit: John Dunn

Looking ahead to fall, Long Island has an above average chance of seeing above normal temperatures, this for September, as well as the three-month period from September to November, according to an outlook released Thursday by the Climate Prediction Center.

Based on "complex models set up to predict climate," there's a 33 percent to 40 percent chance of above normal temperatures for September, and a close to 40 percent chance for the three-month period, said Anthony Artusa, meteorologist and seasonal forecaster with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's prediction center in College Park, Md.

"While temperatures above the norm are expected, it is very difficult to nearly impossible at this time to say with confidence how much above the norm temperatures are likely to be," said Artusa, who is from the Five Towns area.

The monthly norm for September at Long Island MacArthur Airport is 65.6 degrees, with the average high for the month 73.8, according to the National Weather Service, which has maintained Long Island's official records at the Islip Town airport for the past 30 years.

The seasonal average for September through November is 55.0, with the average high for that time period 63.3, the weather service said.

As for the precipitation outlook, "we just don't have good enough information to say either above or below," Artusa said, so the prediction center's call is for an equal chance of above, below or just at normal.

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