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Summer expected to be warmer than normal, forecasters say

Warmer than normal temperatures, on average, are expected for the Long Island area for July through September, federal forecasters said Thursday.

“There are enhanced odds for above-normal temperatures” for nearly all the continental United States, with the highest odds for the Northeast, said Brad Pugh, seasonal forecaster with the Climate Prediction Center, which is under the umbrella of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The call is for a 50 to 60 percent probability for an above-normal three-month average, with normal or below-normal temperatures also possible but less likely. The outlook does not indicate how much above normal the temperature might be.

The average temperature for July through September at Long Island MacArthur Airport in Ronkonkoma is 70.9 degrees, according to Jessica Spaccio, climatologist with the Northeast Regional Climate Center, based at Cornell University.

Even with two record-breaking warm days this week, the average temperature so far this month at MacArthur Airport is 65.9 degrees, which is 0.1 degree below normal, the National Weather Service says.

Forecasters also announced the lessening likelihood for El Niño to develop through the fall, with neutral conditions — meaning no El Niño or La Niña most likely.

Such neutral conditions are expected to have an impact on this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

The prediction center’s May outlook for above-normal or near-normal hurricane activity this year was based in part on the “expectation of a weak or nonexistent El Niño.”

Impacting weather conditions worldwide, El Niño is a climate pattern that starts with especially warm sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and tends to increase upper-level westerly winds in the Atlantic, “tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form,” according to Colorado State University.

As for the precipitation outlook for July through September, the Climate Prediction Center made no call other than an equal chance for above, below or right at normal, which is 10.99 inches, Spaccio said.

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