Tropical Storm Jose, which had been lingering in the western Atlantic, will probably bring high surf and dangerous rip currents to Long Island, but further possible effects will depend on the storm’s track and intensity, forecasters said Thursday.
“It’s too soon to determine or even to speculate on what may occur,” said Jay Engle, a National Weather Service meteorologist based in Upton.
News 12 Long Island meteorologist Bill Korbel said: “With each passing day, as larger atmospheric wind patterns become clearer, the forecast of Jose will also become more specific. Certainly the storm could come uncomfortably close to LI by the middle of next week.”
Jose was looking to move west-northwestward, turning northwestward by Saturday and northward Monday, the hurricane center said in its 5 p.m. Thursday update. However, given “a fair bit of spread” in computer models, there’s not a high degree of confidence in that long-term track forecast,” the forecaster said in the update.
Locally, “the threat for high surf, dune collision, and localized overwashes along the ocean beachfront” will be increasing from Sunday into early next week, the weather service said. That is as astronomical tides will also be rising into next week with an approaching new moon.
However, the severity of those conditions, along with possible coastal flooding, are to be determined by Jose’s ultimate strength and track.
“If nothing else,” the weather service said, “the shoreline threat for dangerous rip currents, high surf and dune erosion will increase this weekend into early next week.”
“We know that for sure” and are watching for further details, said Carlie Buccola, weather service meteorologist in Upton.