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Warmer-than-normal summer on tap for LI, forecasters say

Long-range federal forecasters say conditions favor a warmer-than-normal

Long-range federal forecasters say conditions favor a warmer-than-normal average temperature for June, July and August on Long Island. Here, lifeguards keep watch over Zach's Bay at Jones Beach in Wantagh on Monday, July 4, 2016. Credit: Barry Sloan

Warm weather fans on Long Island will love this.

Not only are we heading toward summer, but long-range federal forecasters also say conditions are favoring a warmer-than-normal average temperature for June, July and August.

Still, there’s some consolation for those who prefer cooler to hotter. Though above average, this summer isn’t expected to be as warm as last, which delivered 14 days registering 90 degrees or above, one long-range forecaster says.

The call this year is for a 50 to 60 percent probability for an above-normal three-month average for the entire East Coast, Long Island included, according to the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which issued its seasonal forecast on Thursday.

This means, overall, warmer than normal is more likely, though below or right at average is possible.

The average seasonal temperature for June through August — the period weather aficionados consider meteorological summer — is 71.7 degrees, according to Samantha Borisoff, climatologist with the Northeast Regional Climate Center based at Cornell University. That’s for Long Island MacArthur Airport.

Last summer an especially toasty August contributed to a rise of 2.7 degrees above the seasonal norm.

In all, the expectation for Long Island is for a degree or two above the normal summer average, said Bob Smerbeck, long range forecaster with AccuWeather. “We don’t think this summer will be as warm and dry as the summer season last year,” he said.

With varying degrees of drought conditions in place last year, the summer ended up 6.43 inches below normal, precipitation-wise.

The Climate Prediction Center made no call as to precipitation, other than an equal chance for above, below or right at normal.

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